All Predictions for the Iran War Are Perfectly on Track for the Year

They're just not the predictions Team Trump or the financial media made.

Jul 13, 2026

Surprise, surprise, the Strait of Hormuz blockade is now fully back on by both sides, and oil has now followed the full path I said it would. First, it plummeted when the strait briefly reopened, as I said you could expect on the basis that foolish speculators would all heave a huge sigh of relief that the worst was behind us. Of course, the worst would prove to be nowhere near behind us; so, I also said oil prices would soon shoot right back up when reality set in. Ta da!

Reality has set in. Iran, as I’ve always said, is not desperate to make a deal with the Don, as he keeps lying and saying they are. (So, I keep calling out his lies and haven’t had to apologize for being wrong about that yet.) I’ve said from the beginning that Iran is making this a war of attrition. That means it knows time is on its side. That is how attrition works. So, any time Iran can buy itself some temporary freedom at no cost from bombs and missiles while keeping the strait almost fully closed for oil shipping out to the West, which is exactly what it did, it will be happy with that stall tactic because attrition takes time. And that such cost-free deals are offered by Trump shows who is really itching to make a deal. We even paid Iran to make that deal by freeing up some of their sanctioned money to help them rearm. The longer the strait is blocked for West-bound oil, the deeper the pain for the US and its former allies.

So, oil is back to Brent Crude running over $80/bbl and WTI over $75. Everything has returned to where it was before the failed and always ill-destined ceasefire, and the oil speculators have been proven stupid again—especially the analysts who started to predict oil at $60/bbl and even lower! They chose to bet on the least probable outcome, but the most probable outcome has now played out.

I’ve posted an excellent video below by Chris Martenson which explains why the oil crisis, for the very reasons I’ve been arguing all long, is far worse than most people seem to think. I recommend watching it to get a confirming point of view if you have any doubt because Monday’s full Daily Doom article, headlines and all, is available to everyone for free. So, soak that up while you can.

Stocks are falling because stock traders also lined up on the wrong side of reality. Indices still look like they have put in the triple top that I declared a couple of weeks ago. Nothing has undermined that prediction. Meanwhile, prices for electricity produced from natural gas have now hit a 17-year high. So, inflation is certainly headed where I have been warning that you will certainly see it go. There are no surprises here whatsoever, except to the fools who place their bets based on their wishes, versus clearly probable outcomes. For them, there are sad surprises, and there will be many more … for them. The wise reader chooses to educate him or herself and not just read what he or she wants to believe, based on political stripes, financial wishes, etc..

War reignites as promised

The Iran War has now “dramatically reignited” with Iran having attacked six US allies in the region over the course of the weekend. There is no sign that Iran is jumping to make a deal as Trump declared when he announced the ceasefire was over, though saying negotiations would continue, albeit under fire. So, the lies from the White House are endless for those who want to believe them. Or you can read here and even support truth-telling.

The flareups are getting worse each day since Trump and Iran both declared the ceasefire had failed with the latest flareup having started because Iran blew up a good part of a container ship that was using the US-approved shipping lane along the Oman coast, which Iran has strictly disapproved. It was a case of Iran asserting that it controls the strait and telling the US in both word and deed that it has to get out of where it doesn’t belong because the strait, as far as Iran is concerned, is fully under Iran’s control for good now.

That was one of the vague points in the Memorandum of Understanding that created the totally failed ceasefire. It was one of the lines along which I predicted the ceasefire was virtually guaranteed to fail because both sides had clearly drafted that line to allow it to mean whatever either side wanted it to mean. That tactic might get parties to sign on, but it doesn’t bode well for success because the truth will out about how each side interprets the deal. So, when you get to negotiating that line, that’s the fault line upon which the whole deal cracks up.

The Cyprus–flagged container ship sustained heavy damage after it was targeted on Saturday, US Central Command said on X.
A civilian crew member was still missing after the ‘blatant’ attack, which forced the ship to stop its journey, authorities said.
‘Iran was provided yet another opportunity to demonstrate adherence to the Memorandum of Understanding after being held accountable for earlier attacks on commercial vessels but has again failed,’ US Central Command added.

Iran was actually given another opportunity to show what its interpretation of the extremely vague MoU means. That interpretation was always obvious as the way Iran was looking at the MoU … for anyone grounded in reality, which is why you read The Daily Doom—to get your truth straight up. It’s the interpretation I have said all along you can be certain Iran is operating by but one that will never stand with the US, which assured the demise of the MoU over time … and not that much time.

The US retaliated by striking another 140 Iranian targets to supposedly curb Iran’s ability to make the kinds of attacks it just successfully made. The US has said that many times, but the curbing doesn’t seem to hold past the day on which it was asserted by the US.

Dramatic video posted by US Central Command showed the overnight strikes as US forces struck about 140 Iranian military targets with munitions launched by aircraft, drones and vessels.
It came after Secretary of War Pete Hegseth vowed revenge for the Iranian strike and said: ‘Iran made a poor choice. Now they pay.’

So, they paid, and so did the US with more if its sites all over the Persian Gulf bombed and stricken by missiles and with oil completing its initial trip back up to the higher prices that this war created, which hurts the US far more than Iran. Those prices will, of course, go higher still, as I have promised after the SPR runs dry and a few gas stations here or there in the US start running out of diesel.

Iran has targeted US naval supply lines in a wave of airstrikes that have brought the interim peace deal to the brink of collapse.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have destroyed several key US facilities across the Gulf, including a refueling station for American aircraft carriers at the Port of Duqm, Oman….
The strikes were the most extensive wave of attacks since fighting restarted this week.

Stategic Petroleum Retreat

Speaking of the SPR, an article in The Daily Doom’s headline section today says that the US may have less time coming from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve than the government thought because the extensive pumping beyond any depths the SPR has ever been brought down to is resulting in mechanical failures that mean the SPR may not be able to yield up all of its stored treasure, or will have to do so at a diminished, therefore less effective, rate.

Frequent drawdowns, wear-and-tear and a lack of investments are straining the reserve, according to experts. The 60 Gulf Coast salt caverns that make up the stocks can’t be drawn from or refilled at the rate at which they were designed, federal researchers found. Equipment failures have bedeviled the reserve’s managers. At one point, a well broke and caused the loss of hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude.
The upshot: President Trump or a future administration might not be able to rely on the massive oil buffer like others have in the past—even as the prolonged U.S.-Iran war all but ensures continued volatility in energy markets.

The deeper you get into the reserve, the harder it is to pump the oil up all the way, so the more antiquated equipment finally fails.

Here is what this all comes down to: you can believe the news your government wants to tell you. You can believe the news that stock analysts and oil-market analysts want to tell you. You can believe everything the mainstream financial press tells you. Or you can believe the news as it is told to you before it actually happens right here on The Daily Doom, which has—for a simple, objective fact—scarcely missed a prediction yet, even though what is said here often runs opposite of what all those other sources are saying, which is why I bother to say it!

There is no sense in just telling you what everyone else is already telling you. So, I focus on the interpretations that are different from most of what you are hearing. (Where my interpretations are the same, there is just not as much reason to say them.) You have to decide if you want to be one of the people who is willing to pay just a little to get the truth before it hits you or one who wants to go along for the free ride that the mainstream media is willing to give. I’ll tell you what’s unpopular, but it will also prove to be what is true.

Of course, some people have already made that choice, and they are better off for it; and I am, too, because they chose to support truth-telling.

Economania (national & global economic collapse plus market news)

Stocks fall after Trump reimposes Strait of Hormuz blockade

SpaceX stock sinks for a second-straight day, nearing $135 IPO price

Burnout, frustration and heartbreak: Amazon layoffs take their toll in saturated job market

Funds fret over $4.4 trillion AI trio’s grip on emerging markets

Real-Estate Rubble (housing, commercial & global real-estate bubble trouble)

Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes Jumps to 10-Year High, Condo Supply to 14-Year High. Sales Slip Deeper into Deep Freeze.

Money Matters (monetary policy, metals, cryptos, currency wars & going cashless)

Entering the strongest period of the year for silver and gold, Aben Gold Drilling for Tungsten and Gold in Yukon w Stocks Selling for Value of its Liquid Assets

Hercules Metals is BIG and Going to Get a Lot Bigger

Inflation Factors (too much money chasing too few goods due to weather, sanctions, tariffs, quarantines, etc.)

Brent crude jumps above $80 a barrel after Trump reinstates Strait of Hormuz blockade on Iranian ships

US Cost for Gas Power at 17-Year High and Climbing

Ship traffic through Strait of Hormuz falls steeply as U.S. and Iran fight for control

Frequent oil draws from US strategic reserve push old system to breaking point

The US, Largest Crude Oil Producer in the World, Produced 42% More than Saudi Arabia and 37% More than Russia in 2025

Millions of Americans take on debt and drain savings to afford food

David, I really appreciate your insight, THAT is why I pay to listen to your opinion. You haven’t been wrong yet. What concerns me is the fact that SO FEW see this coming. Worse yet, they don’t want to see it. I don’t want to see it, either, but it’s there. The worst part is, it is so slow moving people are able to push it off. That’s what I want to do but I know I can’t. Can you put together something about 3-5 things you think people should be doing right now to prepare, beyond the obvious (water, food, gold, etc.)? I think I’m doing enough, but it would be nice to have a kick in the ass from you, something to help focus us.

Thank you, I appreciate you.

MoodyP

3hEdited

Thanks. I have zero doubt that Bessent and the WH are doing everything possible to manipulate the paper price of oil. The paper market is 60x larger than the physical market. Eventually it’s not going to to end well.

7 weeks ago I ordered enough 0-16 oil for 3 oil changes in the Subaru, when the first hint of a possible shortage of the distillates used to make the lighter oils surfaced. I was able to grab 5 quarts at Walmart, but they only had one brand and just a few containers. 7 weeks ago. I’ll check tomorrow to see if they have any.

Every week the order got postponed to the next week. They finally shipped today. And the supplier has a stock level of zero.

I imagine this is going to be a big issue no matter what happens in the near term re SOH.

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