As Ships Fail to Sail to US Ports, Trump's Trade Deals Appear to be Foundering on the Rocks.
The Port of Los Angeles reported today a 35% decline in arriving shipments due to the tariff shutout of China, while other articles point out how Trump is losing nearly all the trade wars he started. As chaos churns around him, the president’s approval ratings have now sunk to the lowest of any president in history for their 100th day in office. Let’s look at how this story came together today.
Ship-wrecked economy
I wrote all about this is my last Deeper Dive, but today’s news affirms how dire the situation is looking for the US:
"Essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased," according to Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka.
The Los Angeles Port head added on Thursday that U.S. exporters are also getting "hit hard" by retaliatory tariffs amid Trump's trade war. Seroka said the sectors include agriculture, heavy-duty manufacturing and information technology services.
"U.S. ag exporters are having an especially challenging time, so much so that in March, China bought more soybeans from Brazil in one month than ever in their history," Seroka said.
That confirms the troubles for farmers that I laid out in the weekend Deeper Dive. These lost sales to China may not be returning when and if the trade war ends because China doesn’t want to be obliged to the US in any way anymore and because it has set a huge amount of money on infrastructure in Brazil to make these record purchases possible, as reported in that Deeper Dive. As also reported, we never recovered all the lost trade with China from the first trade wars, and this is far more intense with China showing a lot less hope for restoring relationships.
Meanwhile, major retailers have told Seroka that they have about a six- to eight-week supply of inventory but that "will quickly dry up." The Los Angeles Port is the major point of entry for cargo ships from China and Southeast Asia into the U.S.
"United States consumers and manufacturers alike will find difficult decisions in the weeks and months to come if policies don't change," Seroka said.
The warnings from Seroka come amid continued back and forth over tariffs and possible deals between the U.S. and China.
Except there is no dealing back and forth. Trump and his team keep saying there is, but China, again today, said there is no dialogue happening at all.
Trump’s attempt to upend the global order has already been defeated
Characterised by screeching handbrake turns, made-up policy on the hoof and mixed-messaging on steroids, it’s been another week of chaos in Washington.
If anyone knows what on Earth it is that the US is trying to achieve on trade, and much else besides, then I’d like to hear from them, because having come to the US capital in the hope of garnering some insights, I’m none the wiser.
What’s now increasingly obvious, however, is that Trump is in ragged retreat; he’s compromising all over the shop, such that if the plan was to upend the established global order, one can almost definitely say that, beyond the rhetoric, it is already over.
Rank lack of professionalism and organisation has defined the endeavour all along, and now it’s coming apart at the seams. Sensing an administration on the run, no one is any longer hurrying to do a trade deal with the US. From Britain to Canada and beyond, getting the right deal rather than a quick one has become the new mantra.
Trump has in the meantime made himself – and the US – into an international laughing stock, never mind the damage that policy uncertainty is inflicting on the global economy. You’d be forgiven for thinking that chaos is itself the policy goal….
Trump has to show a “win” of some sort, so no doubt something that might pass for one will eventually be plucked from melee, but it will be tokenistic stuff.
There have been two defining retreats in particular: first, the pause in “reciprocal” tariffs in the face of a potentially catastrophic market sell-off, and second, attempts to sack the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, likewise quickly ditched when markets ran for the hills.
I covered all of those things, but this reaffirms them from yet another person’s take; so, let’s move on to the part about how the deals Trump keeps saying his team is working on with nations who are ready to make a quick deal are falling apart and particularly to the part about China:
Hopes of an early trade deal with Japan turned to dust after its trade representative took great offence at the abrasive, street-fighting manner of Howard Lutnick, the US commerce secretary, and returned to Tokyo in a state of apoplectic rage.
Mr Lutnick’s approach has similarly ruffled British trade negotiators, with the promise of an early deal fading fast.
Reasonable proposals – such as lowering reciprocal tariffs on cars to just 2.5pc – have gone nowhere….
Sir Keir Starmer’s great kowtow to Trump in the hope of a quick, “first mover advantage” deal has been all but abandoned in favour of a more muscular approach. Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, has finally plucked up the courage to state the obvious – that a better trading relationship with Europe is more important than the US.
Borrowing from Trump’s own phrase book, China has meanwhile dismissed claims that it is nearing a deal with Washington as “fake news”, and called on the US to cancel all unilateral tariffs if it wants to talk.
All the signs are that the US is preparing to water down its tariffs on China, with mounting evidence of serious disruption in US supply chains.
Trade wars are good, and easy to win, the US president once said; in practice, they are proving to be neither….
China updated that message again today to make sure everyone hears it:
China insists no tariff talks underway with Trump and Xi or top aides, despite U.S. claims
China on Monday once again denied that it is in talks to resolve its tariff war with the U.S., after a series of statements by President Donald Trump and his aides suggesting trade negotiations were underway.
“Let me make it clear one more time that China and the U.S. are not engaged in any consultation or negotiation on tariffs,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said at a press conference.
The fact that Trump keeps claiming other nations are anxious and lining up to strike a deal with no other nation saying so, itself, makes it appear Trump is desperate to try to make that true.
Guo also appeared to reject Trump’s claim, in an interview with Time last week, that Chinese President Xi Jinping had called him.
“As far as I know, there have not been any calls between the two presidents recently,” the spokesman said.
The latest blanket denial was in line with Beijing’s hardline stance against Trump’s massive 145% tariffs on imports from China, a top supplier of U.S. goods.
“Every day we are in conversation with China,” Trump’s Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, said Sunday on CNN.
One side is lying through their teeth. Here is how we can figure out which side that is:
When told that the Chinese deny this, Rollins said, “Well, according to our team in Washington, the conversations are ongoing regarding multiples of trade, multiples of the trade goods that are coming out and going in.”
There are no trade goods coming in or going out. Shipmens from China are stone-cold dead. Our own port in LA just told us that. So, right away, that statement does not have the ring of truth.
“The bottom line with China is this: They need us more than we need them,” she said.
They keep reiterating that, too, but China keeps saying, in essence, “We’re not talking and we’re not even about to start talking.”
Asked on Sunday why China would deny that negotiations are underway, Bessent said, “Well, I think they’re playing to a different audience.”
Pressed to explain whether the talks are actually happening, he said, “We have a process in place. And again, I just believe these Chinese tariffs are unsustainable.”
The first part there sounded like the answer I would have thought might be the case if China is the side that is lying. One could try to argue they’re saying what they feel they need to for the folks back home, except that I sure don’t see how playing it that way would ease tensions at home among hundreds of thousands of Chinese businesses that suddenly can’t sell to the US and Chinese consumers who are seeing their imported pork, chicken and soy rise in price under China’s retaliatory tariffs. I would think home would like to hear that the Great Leader is making progress. Of course, Xi, doesn’t have to worry about voters, just peasant revolts.
Then we come to the second line, and see that Bessent switches as quickly as he can to dissembling. First he’s vague: “We have a process.” So what? Everything has a process. Then he switches the conversation to stating the obvious generic truth that the present tariffs are unsustainable. Obviously. No one can argue with that. He implies they are that way for China, but clearly they are for the US, too, if we listen to what the ports are saying and US businesses are braying about.
“We have some great retailers. I assume they preordered. I think we’ll see some elasticities and I think we’ll see replacements, and then we will see how quickly the Chinese want to de-escalate,” said Bessent.
There are a lot of “I think” and assumptions in that answer. So far the things they have thought have not panned out. Japan walked away from a deal. China says it isn’t even talking to the US. The UK is disgruntled and turning toward Europe for its future. I don’t see any wins on the table so far.
Bessent put the onus for that de-escalation on China, before saying he would not negotiate through the press.
And China said, “No thanks.”
China has consistently demanded that Trump, who has held up tariffs as both a powerful negotiating tool and a way to rake in government revenue, scrap his sweeping import taxes.
Sounds like an impasse to me.
Yet, Trump keeps assuring us they are talking. China keeps saying, not in the least.
It’s a sad state of affairs when I am more inclined to take the word of the president of China (or his representatives) than to take the word of the US president (and his representatives), but I’m afraid that is where we are. China’s words sound more credible. Ours sound evasive and vague, and they lack any concrete evidence of any deal at all. Maybe he’ll pull something out of the hat as this goes to press. He desperately needs to.
Meanwhile, we are sailing into an economic shipwreck
Empty shelves, trucking layoffs lead to a summer recession in Apollo’s shocking trade fight timeline
Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, laid out a timeline in a presentation for clients that showed when the impact of tariffs announced by President Donald Trump could hit the U.S. economy. Based on the transport time required for goods from China, U.S. consumers could start to notice trade-related shortages in their local stores next month, according to the presentation.
“The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods,” Slok wrote in a note to clients Friday….
All of that affirms the points laid out in my Deeper Dive.
Tariff to recession timeline:
April 2: Tariffs announced, containership departures from China to U.S. slowing
Early-to-mid May: Containerships to U.S. ports come to a stop
Mid-to-late May: Trucking demand comes to a halt, leading to empty shelves and lower sales for companies
Late May to early June: Layoffs in trucking and retail industries
Summer 2025: recession
All the steps that I pointed to as being sure to hit with similar estimates to mine on th timeframe. Here is the basis for that timeline:
It takes about 20 to 40 days for container ships to sail to the U.S. from China, according to Apollo. Slok estimates that container ships coming to U.S. ports could come to a stop by mid-May. [Sounds to me like all those from China have already stopped.]
It then takes about 1-to-10 days of transit time for trucking/rail to bring goods from the ports to cities. Apollo Global Management predicts that by late May domestic freight demand will "come to a halt" and that there will be "empty shelves," forcing retailers and others to deal with lower sales.
By early June, Slok forecasts there will be layoffs in the domestic freight and retail industries with a recession hitting the U.S. this summer.
Left out of that equation between now and empty shelves is the fact that, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says, surely some businesses stocked up in anticipation. We were told in the first article that business generally reported having enough inventory to last 6-8 weeks; however, I expect we’ll start to see a number of things disappearing in the coming month. Two months out, it will start to look like the old Soviet Union around here. If there is no deal by summer, the shortages will become “unsustainable” … for us. (I’ll leave China to worry about itself. It does, after all, have the entire rest of the world to trade with. We do not because we are engaging the whole world in this war at once. Trump’s pride in thinking we can do it all at once is likely to be our downfall. In the very least, we’ll pay 10% tariffs on all replacements from other nations. China will not pay any tariffs on its replacements.)
The poll bells toll for Trump
With all the chaos and no wins at all to show so far, though I’m sure he’ll scratch out some token victories, Trump’s polls have sunk so deep into the drink that even Trump is threatening today to have the pollsters investigated because he cannot believe the real news is as bad as they claim.
Maybe he’s right, but here is what they claim:
Faced with record-low approval ratings, President Donald Trump is calling for “FAKE POLLS FROM FAKE NEWS ORGANIZATIONS” to be investigated for fraud.
The latest New York Times/Siena Poll found just 42 percent of registered voters approved of the job Trump is doing, while 54 percent disapproved….
His approval rating was even lower—just 39 percent—in a new poll from ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos. It was a new low for a president’s first 100 days in office.
“These people should be investigated for ELECTION FRAUD,” Trump wrote on Truth Social in response to the polling numbers. “THEY ARE SICK, almost only write negative stories about me no matter how well I am doing.”
That’s the worst 100-day rating in eighty years of polling. To be fair, the polls could easily be off balance, given the mainstream sources that hate Trump:
During his diatribe, the president referenced a social media post from the MAGA-friendly polling “expert” John McLaughlin, who pointed out that only 37 percent of the New York Times survey respondents and 34 percent of the ABC poll respondents had voted for Trump.
“Didn’t we win popular vote with 50 percent?” he wrote, tagging Trump’s communications director….
Then there’s the fact that 6 percent of Trump’s own voters said they regretted casting their ballots for him, according to the ABC poll….
Even polling from Trump’s beloved Fox News showed the president enjoyed just a 44 percent approval rating.
Former President Joe Biden had a 54 percent approval rating at the same point in his presidency, while former presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush were at 62 percent and 63 percent, respectively, the network reported last week.
Still, Republican NeoCon, Carl Rove, gave the results of all the polls a decisively rough outlook for Trump, mincing no words and winning no friends among the majority of Republicans who kowtow in orbit around Trump:
‘He Is in Very Bad Shape’: Karl Rove Absolutely Dumps on Trump in Scathing Fox News Segment…
Rove’s comments came after host Paul Gigot, editor of The Wall Street Journal‘s editorial page, observed that a new Fox News poll demonstrated that only 38% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance on the economy and even fewer approve of his handling of inflation and tariffs and asked Rove to weigh in.
“Well, he’s [Trump] off to a good start only on one issue, and that is border security, where his approval rating is 11 points ahead of his overall approval rating. He gets reasonably good marks on immigration and handling of deportations, but even those he’s upside down on,” replied Rove. “But you’re right, Paul. When it gets to the economy, he is in very bad shape. And it’s not only that he’s in the short term in bad shape, there’s also evidence in the poll that no matter-, even if he gets his way on certain things like tariffs, that he’s not good in the long run….
So, there’s some very deep-seated skepticism among ordinary Americans about the effect of the economy, the president’s economic policies, both in the short run and the long run….”
They just hoped that he would do better on inflation and jobs and economic growth. And then when he came in, just the sort of chaos and the inability of the administration to explain what they’re doing, I think has hurt them very much. And it’s also hurt them, frankly, even on the things that they’re getting right. Think about border security. 55% of the American people approve of his handling of border security, and it’s true, go to the border, he flows across the border have greatly diminished and are completely manageable.
Poll are not what matters, of course. Not to me anyway. They could swing around quickly if Trump winds up getting some major wins from this tariff wars, but they will go even more sour if the purported negotiations drag out and those shelves start appearing bare. In other words, if the Chinese are telling the truth, then things look bleak for Trump. He needs a win to turn the polls around for his own sake because polls do matter to politicians, especially when midterm elections come around where Trump could be stripped of all of his congressional power if he doesn’t turn this around.
Right now, Trump doesn’t seem to have any wins from his own tariff wars, and he needs some big ones. We’re only in the second inning, of course, but the troubling part is that the Chinese say he’s lying and that they are not negotiating with him at all and will not negotiate until he, first, drops his tariffs, which would require a major face plant on his part. So, that is not likely to happen.
I, of course, have said all along, I don’t think his strategy can win. I think taking on the whole world at once in a trade war is patently dumb. It gives everyone else the advantage of free trade with the rest of the world and you getting stuck with free trade with no one. That came about due to extreme hubris, thinking we can do anything. So, this all plays to my bias so far. The evidence is on my side so far. Trump, on the other hand, keeps saying all along that everyone on the other side is anxious to make a deal; but he is starkly lacking any evidence of that. The Chinese certainly do not either look or sound like they are anxious to make a deal; so, I think that’s a lot of typical Trump bluster. Where’s the beef? Trump needs to start showing a few goals.
There are a lot more stories along these lines in the headlines below about the collapse of the empire, as many are now seeing it. They are a sober read coming from many angles:
Economania (national & global economic collapse plus market news)
Port Of Los Angeles Warns 'Difficult Decisions' Ahead As Shipments From China Cease
Empty shelves, trucking layoffs lead to a summer recession in Apollo’s shocking trade fight timeline
Tools of History: How do empires die?
Bill Bonner: The DOGE campaign made no more headway than the trade war.
Trump Promised a Markets Boom. 100 Days In, Stocks Have Only Seen Damage
The economy is getting crazy (250,000 people just lost their jobs)
Reimagining America Requires Us to Face the Truth
Consumer expectations crater to three-decade low amid Trump tariff chaos
Tesla is in worse shape than you think
Wealthy consumers upped their spending last quarter, while the rest of America is cutting back
Real-Estate Rubble (housing, commercial & global real-estate bubble trouble)
Money Matters (monetary policy, metals, cryptos, currency wars & going cashless)
The King's Gambit: Trump, the Dollar, and the Coming Collapse
Comex Gold Settles 1.53% Higher at $3332.50
Gold rebounds as bargain-hunting kicks in
Why Gold Is the Smartest Move You Haven't Made Yet (But Still Can)
Inflation Factors (from too much money chasing too few goods due to weather, sanctions, tariffs, quarantines, etc.)
‘The Golden Age Is Coming, But, in the Meantime, Stock Up on Toilet Paper’
Temu adds ‘import charges’ of about 145% after Trump tariffs, more than doubling price of many items
Wars & Rumors of War, Revolts, Hacks & Cyberattacks + AI threats
A massive explosion at an Iranian port possibly linked to missile fuel kills 25, injures some 800
Tehran in trouble: Deadly port explosion leaves Iran in a bind
US aircraft carrier loses plane overboard due to 'evading Houthi fire'
Is Anything Real Anymore? AI Making Americans Suspicious Of Everything Online
Trump Trade Wars & Turf Wars
Trump’s attempt to upend the global order has already been defeated
China insists no tariff talks underway with Trump and Xi or top aides, despite U.S. claims
Canada votes as Trump renews US takeover push. Leaders Say Get Lost.
Political Pandemonium & Social Senescence (socio-political issues & events)
Trump has lowest 100-day approval rating in 80 years when the polls began
Only about half of Republicans say Trump has focused on the right priorities
‘He Is in Very Bad Shape’: Karl Rove Absolutely Dumps on Trump in Scathing Fox News Segment
Trump Demands Investigations Into Pollsters After Humiliating Results
Who Changed? An Honest Conversation about Dishonesty
Notes from the edge of civilization
Numbers show no mass deportation of migrants, despite Trump immigration crackdown
MAGA Fabulist Santos gets 7-year prison sentence for fraud
Senate report: DOGE cuts could help Elon Musk companies avoid $2 billion in liabilities
Karoline Leavitt Refuses to Rule Out Arrest of Supreme Court Judges if they Obstruct Justice
How Trump team turned a dinner invite into a crypto boon worth millions
Calamity, Catastrophe & Climate Craziness
‘Rare atmospheric phenomenon’ blamed as huge power outages in Spain and Portugal cause chaos
Spain declares state of emergency, as Portugal struggles with chaos
Over-Reliance On Renewables Behind Catastrophic Blackouts in Spain
Project 2025’s goals are to destroy the economy and the government, among other goals, thereby causing poverty, sickness, and death. 47 is their incompetent puppet, surrounded by incompetent sub-puppets.
It sounds as if he’s afraid republican owned polls will be arrested for election fraud, for the polls that were actually fraudulent before the election, and helped to make the actual hack of the election seem believable. It’s pretty funny that he would accuse post election polls of election fraud. It must be his guilty conscience. Again. He’s so guilty!