EXTRA: War with Iran is On
President Trump announces the US war with Iran has begun. Iran fires back on US military bases and on Israel. Threats of going nuclear. Israel fully involved.
The US war with Iran has begun. President Donald Trump confirmed in a video posted at the very start of the weekend that the United States and Israel had launched “major combat operations” against Iran:
A US War with Iran was likely to begin by this weekend and has
President Trump often makes the decision to start a war ahead of his own final stated deadline in order to capture the element of surprise for the attack if it looks like the deadline is not going to be met. It’s not his way to remain patient on deadlines if no progress is being seen. So, his usual M.O. indicated a US war with Iran was likely to begin by this Saturday.
Even though Trump had stated a “maximum” fifteen-day deadline, which would have expired on Friday of the upcoming week, that maximum deadline would have required Iran to take clear steps inside of that timeframe to completely end its production of nuclear materials and of missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to Europe and beyond.
The Trump administration throughout the past week, made it clear it was not seeing any serious progress toward that objective and felt it was being faked by Iran in order to stall for more time for the regime’s continued existence. Moves like the evacuation of all but essential personnel from US embassies in the region indicated war had become an imminent and likely prospect.
Even though continued nuclear talks were scheduled for the coming week, Trump would likely have continued to schedule talks even if he knew a war with Iran was going to begin before those talks in order to enhance the element of some surprise. Congress inadvertently pressed him hard to start the war with Iran this weekend when Democrats threaten to force a vote that would prevent Trump from doing so at the start of the upcoming week. That move increased the likelihood Trump would act before such a vote could be even taken.
The risks from this war are extreme
Iran, as I noted earlier this week had threatened a nuclear reprisal if the US launched a war with Iran:
In a thinly veiled threat, Iran’s Army Chief has warned,
“If the US strikes Tehran, then IRGC will test it’s [sic] first nuclear capabilities during war.”
The strike on Tehran is now a fait accompli. One had to wonder if that nuclear warning from the top was just the usual saber rattling, or was it Iran’s first official admission that Iran has actually achieved nuclear weapon capability, contrary to its long claim that it was never working to acquire a nuclear weapon and never would.
One would think, given the vastly superior US war power that, if Iran were going to use a nuclear weapon, it would do so quickly while it still maintained the ability to launch one at Israel. If it delayed at all, it may never have the chance. However, that would depend on how much Iran’s leadership was convinced they had the location of such a weapon held in secret.
While the gravest risk, according to Iran is that this quickly turns into a nuclear war or World War III, the more probably risk is the death of US troops. In his speech, the president acknowledged risks from this war are higher than others when he pointed out the possibility (or likelihood) that US troops would die in a sacrifice of US lives to change the Iranian regime. It is uncustomary for a US president who is staring a war to tell Americans that some of their family may die, but Trump stated the risk straight-up.
Trump had already stated that any attack, if it happened, would not be the kind of limited strike that some have suggested:
[General] “Razin Caine” is a Great Fighter, and represents the Most Powerful Military anywhere in the World. He has not spoken of not doing Iran, or even the fake limited strikes that I have been reading about. He only knows one thing, how to WIN and, if he is told to do so, he will be leading the pack.
While limited strikes seem unlikely based on the president’s statement, it is always possible if Iran were to wave the flag of surrender quickly and promise to end all nuclear material development, turn over all nuclear material stocks, and fully open its doors to UN inspections, that Iran could end the war. Based on Iran’s claims that it would never negotiate under threat, that seems improbable. So war with Iran is likely to be fierce and fiercer.
Israel joining the US war with Iran makes the risk far worse
Though the president intentionally kept Israel largely out of his speech, focusing on the threat to US allies in Europe and threat to the US to make a stronger case before America for war being in the United State’s best interest and not being something cooked up by Israel.
Israel’s involvement in attacking Iran, however, likely raises the threat of the war drawing in other Arab nations that have long been adversaries with Israel. Lebanon/Hezbollah, for example, had said it would stay out unless Israel was involved in attacking Iran. Israel’s involvement, along with Iran’s threat that it will test its first nuclear weapon in this war if the war were to happen, raises the prospect that this war with Iran could become World War III, as many have feared, which is why the US has engaged with Iran for decades without attempting another regime change.
The US attack on Fordow and other Iranian nuclear sites was intensely focused, made little effort to terminate Iran’s military and made no apparent effort at regime change. Israel’s involvement was less intense and more defensive. However, the president has stated this war IS about regime change. He has given his guarantee in the speech above that regime change will now happen, and has encouraged Iranians to seize the day as the one-and-only opportunity they are likely to ever see to install their own regime of the people’s choice to replace the current regime.
This makes this raises the risks and severity of this war beyond anything ever seen between the US and Iran or between Israel or Iran. One could say, “The fight is on.” This is the real deal where regime change is the clearly stated US objective. In light of these risks, what follows are some initial headlines about the war with Iran to give an overall sense of what is happening
Aggregated news headlines on the War with Iran
US and Israel attack Iran
U.S. and Israel attack Iran as Trump urges Iranians to ‘take over’ the government
‘Your only chance’: Trump urges Iranians to overthrow regime, vows to destroy missile sites
Gauging the Impact of Massive U.S.-Israeli Strikes on Iran
Regime Change in Iran
Iran defence minister, Guards commander killed in Israeli attacks, three sources say
Iran’s foreign minister says supreme leader and president are alive, ‘as far as I know’
Iran Strikes Back
Sirens sound in Tel Aviv and across central Israel amid an Iranian ballistic missile attack
Missile fragments reported across central Israel and West Bank
Iran says it has hit US base in Bahrain, as it launches strikes across region
Iran hits back with missiles at Israel and U.S. bases, while Trump urges Iranians to seize power
Explosions heard across the Middle East as Iran retaliates against U.S. attacks
Collateral impacts from War on Iran
Attack on Iran disrupts flights across the Middle East and beyond
Dubai hotel on fire after Iranian missile strike
Four injured in apparent Iran strike on Dubai’s landmark The Palm
US and Israeli attack on Iran: At least 63 girls killed in strike on Iranian school
Explosions in Dubai and Abu Dhabi Jolt Mideast Financial Hubs
MAGA meltdown over war with Iran goes nuclear on Trump
‘End of MAGA’: Trump’s attack on Iran sets off revolt among angry supporters
Marjorie Taylor Greene blasts Trump’s Iran strikes
Stephen Miller warning to young Americans over imminent WW3 ages terribly
World leaders react cautiously to US and Israeli strikes on Iran as fears grow of a wider war
Empire ‘sleepwalking’ into Iran war catastrophe