Face of the Middle East Revolutionized in One Explosive Day

Bashar al Assad is struck from power, and the whole landscape of the Middle East is transformed.

Dec 10, 2024

In just one day, the Middle East is a very different place as the balance of powers shifts everywhere. Yes, this was years in forming, but it is stunning how quickly and surprisingly things can turn when they finally do. Bashar al Assad, whose family was a Syrian fixture, bringing democide to its nation for half a century, fled to Russia, which welcomed the ruthless murderer of his own people with open arms “on humanitarian grounds.”

Suddenly, Iran is almost powerless in the ME equation outside of its own country. Russia is fleeing from its military bases in Syria where it has invested a small fortune. And Hezbollah has lost its primary ally in the transportation for weapons from Iran while Israel’s situation has dramatically shifted as powers crumble and balances shift all across the landscape.

While there is no saying that the new government will not turn out worse than Assad as it fills the power vacuum, for now Israel and Turkey are the clear winners as is the West in terms of what Western leaders wanted to see. Here’s the breakdown of the flips of power switches everywhere across the Middle East:

Russia rushes out

Russia immediately started abandoning its bases in Syria last night and today, evacuating its ships and transporting out as many weapons as it can rapidly move. (Unlike the US that generously left most of its armaments in Afghanistan to aid the Taliban in consolidating their power against the people.) All Russian forces are reported as evacuating the country.

For Russia, this means losing its sole military port on the Mediterranean Sea. Russia winds up with nothing at all to show for the billions it has spent in Syria, no military advantage gained. That may not sit well at home for Putin who is also losing a fortune and tens of thousands of lives in Ukraine, even though he may eventually win his Ukrainian invasion, but at vastly greater cost and over a much longer time period than anyone expected.

For now, the way Russia’s ally in the Middle East crumbled overnight will be an example at home that few are likely to miss—a lot of money spent along with Russian lives to gain absolutely nothing.

Iran ran, too

Iran was trying to build a wall of power on Israel’s flank and was using Syria as a transport channel to Lebanon for arms going to its proxy force, Hezbollah, to fight Israel on its northern border. Once Syria’s battle against revolutionaries ended, Iran likely intended to fight Israel more intensely with proxies on its northeastern (Golan) border as well.

Syria and Iran were the closest of allies, whose hatred focused acutely on Israel. Overnight, Syria has transformed into Iran’s most hostile enemy in the Middle East, for the new Sunni regime intensely hates Shiite Iran on religious ground, but also for all the bloodshed Iran brought against it during this Syrian revolution.

All pro-Iranian forces have reportedly withdrawn from the country in a humiliating blow to the Ayatollah.
Iran has lost a key ally in its Shia axis across proxies and allies in the Middle East.

Iran loses both a fully dedicated ally state and a corridor for supplying its terrorist forces in Lebanon. This is a truly massive defeat for Iran’s Middle-Eastern plans that has ripped out the still-beating heart of its military structure in the ME. Overnight, its staunch and central ally has become its bitter enemy.

Iran is now isolated in the Middle East:

Iran finds itself isolated after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, which upended the Middle East by dismantling the “Axis of Resistance” – an informal, Iran-led alliance uniting Syria and armed groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. With key allies destroyed or weakened, Tehran will be forced to redefine its security policy and its regional role.

Iran’s embassy in Syria became a portrait today of just how much ground it has lost throughout the Middle East in the last five years:

Portraits of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Ayatollah Khomeini littered the floor. Portraits glorifying Hassan Nasrallah – the former leader of Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, who was killed in an Israeli raid in September – and revered Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, killed in a 2020 US strike in Iraq, were torn down. It was clear that Tehran, Bashar al-Assad's main ally, is no longer in control.

Syria was Iran’s corridor for delivering logistical and armed support to the Lebanese group Hezbollah and to Hamas in Gaza, which helped ensure the security of Axis of Resistance powers while allowing Iran to exercise its influence – and deterrent capabilities – far from its own borders. “Syria represented a springboard for the Iranian regime to project its influence as far as the Mediterranean, and that has disappeared,” notes Jonathan Piron, a historian and Iran specialist at the Etopia research centre in Brussels.
“The Axis of Resistance as we knew it no longer exists,” he says. “With the Israeli operation in Lebanon, Hezbollah is no more. Its capacity for action has been significantly diminished, in any case. Now, Assad's Syria no longer exists, either. The main pillars of the Axis of Resistance have disappeared. What is left? The Houthis [in Yemen], but they have their own agenda and are far from Tehran. And the Iraqi militias, which have refused to intervene in recent days on Syrian soil to come to the aid of Bashar al-Assad…."
For many years, the Islamic Republic of Iran built its deterrent capability on a network of alliances extending all the way from Tehran to Beirut on the Mediterranean Sea. This significantly expanded Iran’s influence by allowing it to brandish the threat of retaliation from Hezbollah or Iraqi Shiite militias against any possible aggression, notably from archenemy Israel.
“Iran finds itself in an unprecedented position of weakness; its security perimeter is now restricted to its actual borders,” says Piron. “The Iranian regime will have to rethink its security.”
And that could introduce even more new dynamics to the region. Given the new circumstances Iran now finds itself in, Tehran may look to accelerate the development of nuclear weapons to ensure that its regime does not suffer the same fate as Assad’s.

The West wins, except its people may have lost

Naturally, this is seen as a victory for the West, but is it a victory for the citizens of the West or just the ambitions of their leaders? Biden is already rushing in a military response to help “stabilize Syria” after the collapse. I find it hard to believe that a stronger US military presence in Syria will stabilize anything. It just puts us on a footing of war with the new regime, which hates the US ideologically and hates the US based on its own experiences as much as it hates Iran.

A move “to stabilize” could easily prove to be a euphemism for a move to turn Syria into a US power base, which means a move to engage in endless war with the Sunni rebels who have taken the nation over and who, on the surface, promise Democratic elections … unless the US was working with these rebels to help topple Assad with certain promises made by them to the US. (But that idea may just be me writing novels of intrigue and war.)

To some extent some move by the US may be needed, as Syria has tons of chemical weapons that the US doesn’t want to see fall into terrorist hands. Nor should anyone want that, but it’s hard to believe the US missiles and bomb strikes that began in Syria on Sunday will stop at just securing nuclear facilities and weapons of mass destruction. When do they ever?

President Joe Biden announced that U.S. forces had hit Islamic State camps and operatives in Syria and said the United States was working with its partners to address concerns that extremist groups could capitalize on the power vacuum left by Assad’s departure to Russia.

That sounds more like the MIC’s long-too-familiar nation building to me, not like securing WMD from getting into evil hands. The people who staged the successful coup against Assad are already defined by the US as “extremist groups,” which they are, but that means the US is now already at war with these extremist groups in Syria without so much as vote of congress (again).

“We’re clear-eyed about the fact that ISIS will try to take advantage of any vacuum to reestablish its capabilities to create a safe haven,” Biden said, referring to the Islamic State by an acronym. “We will not let that happen.”

Well, there you go. Of course, they won’t. The US would never let a good regime change in the ME go to waste.

The rebel groups that toppled the autocrat had their own “grim record of terrorism,” he said. “They’re saying the right things now. But as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions.”

So, the nations of the West are thrilled that Russia’s and Iran’s ally has been toppled, but beware the US re-entering its familiar and typically failing role as world cop for the benefit of the people (and maybe a little oil). Here we go again:

To beat back the Islamic State, forces from the U.S. Central Command, whose area of responsibility includes the Middle East, on Sunday struck over 75 ISIS targets using B-52, F-15 and A-10 warplanes, the command said in a statement….
“There should be no doubt — we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” said Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, who leads the command. “All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way.”
Among numerous concerns is the fate of the remnants of Assad’s chemical weapons program. The Syrian leader once had a major chemical weapons stockpile and used the banned weapons repeatedly against rebel forces, the Obama administration said in 2013….
The administration does not expect that the current chemical weapons threat will require “boots on the ground,” the official said.

Do we even expect there will actually be WMD, or will this be like yellow cake in Iraq, the only kind of which found in any quantity was birthday cake. They always start by saying it won’t require boots on the ground, and then it does. It didn’t take long for the US military to capitalize on Assad’s demise as Russia and Iran instantaneously fled.

With a wide range of regional actors threatened by instability in Syria and seeing an opportunity to seize advantage, Biden administration officials have been reaching out extensively to countries that share borders with Syria. The country’s central location makes it a hub for many regional dynamics and rivalries….
Syria has long been a danger hot spot for U.S. interests. The Biden administration had been tracking the Islamic State targets that were hit in Sunday’s strikes for some time, even before the events of the last few days, and took the moment to weaken the group’s operational capacity, the official said.

Biden, of course, was quick to claim the victory over Assad as his own:

Biden on Sunday sought to take credit for Assad’s fall from power, saying it was the result of the actions his administration took to boost allies amid the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Russia, Iran and Hezbollah were unable to aid the Assad regime like they had in the past because they are “weaker today than they were when I took office,” he said….
For more than a decade, U.S. presidents have grappled with how to contain the brutal leadership of Assad without triggering a spiraling international conflict. The fall of the Assad regime fulfills a longtime U.S. foreign policy goal, after Russia and Iran supported Assad amid the Obama administration’s efforts to oust him….
Trump, on Saturday, called for the United States to stand back in Syria, saying that Washington does not have a direct stake in the conflict….
Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, who led the U.S. Central Command during part of Trump’s first term … noted that 900 U.S. troops are present in Syria for counterterrorism efforts….
On Sunday, Trump drew a line between Assad’s collapse and Russia’s war in Ukraine. He said that Russian President Vladimir Putin, long Assad’s chief foreign backer, should abandon his years-long war in Ukraine.
“Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. He called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and continued, “I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. … The World is waiting!”

Israel rises

Israel rose in power today as it seized a thin strip of Syrian territory along its northeastern border for security measures, particularly a Syrian fort on top of Mount Hermon, the highest mountain in Israel that sits on the border.

What is happening these days in the Middle East cannot be found even in the most optimistic scenarios heard 14 months after the surprise attack of October 7. The Shiite axis designed to strangle Israel is collapsing before our eyes.

It is like an entire hurricane just collapsed into itself.

Qassem Soleimani’s “ring of fire” vision, designed to allow Iran to advance its nuclear program and endanger Israel’s existence, is being buried like its mastermind. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, first lost the gifted commander of the Revolutionary Guards, then his favorite ally Hassan Nasrallah, and now the Assad regime has fallen….

Israeli forces moved Sunday into buffer areas of the Golan Heights and limited areas on the Syrian side of its border, describing those as temporary moves as Israel seeks to determine who is in the area.

Israel’s Army Radio reported Sunday that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had seized the peak of Mount Hermon, the highest mountain in the region, as a precaution against the advance of Syrian rebels as the Assad regime collapsed….
The move marks the first time Israeli troops have been on the peak of the mountain since the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

Netanyahu was just as quick as Biden to claim his own role in the victory:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday claimed the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria as a direct outcome of Israel's actions in the region, something analysts in Israel said was only partially true.

He could use the boost and the distraction:

Speaking while under growing domestic pressure over the fate of Israeli hostages in Gaza and a corruption trial, Netanyahu said Assad's demise was "a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah, Assad's main supporters"….
Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told AFP that while it was true Israel helped precipitate events in Syria, Assad's fall was an unintended consequence.
"It's obvious that what Israel did has definitely led to that, but I doubt that they had a strategy to do so," he said.
Netanyahu warned Assad on November 27, the day Syria's rebel offensive began, that he was "playing with fire" by supporting Hezbollah and helping to transfer weapons to Lebanon.
"And, of course, nobody calculated how the fact that Iran and Hezbollah were so weakened would damage Assad's ability to protect himself and his regime."
Analysts also pointed to Russia, a key military backer, being distracted by Ukraine as a factor leading to Assad's demise, something that was beyond Netanyahu's control….
Aviv Oreg, an analyst at the Meir Amit Center and a former military intelligence officer, said Netanyahu's claims had some legitimacy….
He pointed to the strikes against Hezbollah, both in Syria and Lebanon, which Israel escalated dramatically in late September, as being a key factor in Assad's demise.
"Hezbollah had many, many troops in Syria and now they have left or moved away," he said.

So, the political/national landscape has completely flipped overnight, though the buildup toward it happening formed over years. One should not be quick to assume this is a true victory for Israel in Syria, however, even if it is very helpful against Hezbollah’s and Iran’s goals:

Speaking before Assad's fall, Didier Billion at the IRIS think tank in Paris said that Israel had long appeared to "prefer the maintenance" of Assad over the possible "arrival to power of Islamists or jihadist groups"….
Oreg said that Netanyahu could not have predicted the consequences for Syria of Israel's actions, but that the prime minister's decision to rapidly escalate the fight with Hezbollah was a "huge success, militarily"….
"There was no strategy, but things went so well that, in hindsight, you can say 'amazing strategy'," said Citrinowicz.

The destruction of the Axis of Resistance is a direct consequence of the Hamas-led attacks of October 7 and Israel’s subsequent offensive, says David Rigoulet-Roze, associate research fellow and Middle East expert at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs.
“The first riposte was the war in Gaza against Hamas in immediate response to the tragedy of October 7. This was undoubtedly the first salvo in a larger game plan,” Rigoulet-Roze explains. “The second was the war of attrition against Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which became the first Iranian proxy to intervene by firing rockets into Israel in solidarity with Hamas starting on October 8.”
“The fall of Bashar al-Assad could be seen as the third stage, triggered by the two previous ones,” he says.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may have anticipated this outcome or at least hoped for it, according to Rigoulet-Roze, who notes that Netanyahu began speaking of a grand redrawing of the region very early on.
“What Hamas will experience will be difficult and terrible ... we are going to change the Middle East,” Netanyahu said on October 9, just two days after the attack on Israel.
The fall of Assad can be partly attributed to Iran’s weakened state, brought on by the strategic crippling of its proxies – first and foremost, Hezbollah.
“It is usually Hezbollah that fights to defend Iranian interests by protecting Bashar al-Assad,” notes Rigoulet-Roze. “But Hezbollah had to repatriate many of its troops to Lebanon for its battle with Israel. So Assad found himself a bit like a 'naked king', especially since Russia was no longer able to save the Syrian regime because of its involvement in Ukraine."

Turkey is prime

Turkey also came out the big winner, given it has viewed forces inside Syria as a threat for decades and fought against Kurdish forces inside Syria for its own reasons during the revolution.

Turkey spent a lot of money helping the rebels fight Assad, but Turkey has its own concerns with Kurdish rebels in Syria, too, which are not ended by the downfall of Assad:

With Israel seizing control of border areas of Syria and Turkish-backed forces skirmishing with Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the country’s northeast, the situation remains deeply combustible.
Chief among the fears is that the Islamic State — which long held portions of Syrian territory under the fierce rule of its caliphate — could seize advantage of the situation to reestablish itself as a major force in the country.

At least, Turkey, whose southern border is with Syria, will now have a strong Sunni ally on its flank.

Middle East flipped in a day

Today was an example how things rarely change or turn slowly then suddenly flip on a dime:

The flurry of activity capped an astonishing turn of events in which rebel forces needed just days to upend a status quo that stretched across the administrations of three U.S. presidents, and as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to steer a very different foreign policy from that of his predecessor.

Trump will be walking into a much different scenario than any former president now alive.

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Face of the Middle East Revolutionized in One Explosive Day

Bashar al Assad is struck from power, and the whole landscape of the Middle East is transformed.

Russia rushes out

Iran ran, too

The West wins, except its people may have lost

Israel rises

Turkey is prime

Middle East flipped in a day

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