Iran Has Trump Right Where it Wants him and Is Turning up the Heat!
Stocks wilt, oil gets hotter, and the president burns with rage at his chief warlord, then gets laid out flat.
Stock indices turned unanimously back down today with the Dow taking the biggest hit, while oil prices turned back up; but the real churning turmoil is on the Iran war front where Iran is not backing down but has, instead, pinned Trump in a completely defensive position, which is primarily why prices in oil and stocks churned and turned as they did today.
Those two major stories are—markets and war—are conjoined at the hip in the news today. I am going to handle them separately by covering the war action today and then digging down into the complexities of the oil market to reveal how ugly the truth beneath the headline numbers truly is in my Deeper Dive. While shortages in crude oil inside the US have not appeared quite as quickly as I predicted, everything else in oil and fuel markets is right on track, and the damage to the economy will be significant. I’ll explain the nuances of all of that in the Deeper Dive for paying subscribers.
However, if you’re a White House insider, there is no question you are amassing truly one of the biggest oil fortunes in history by running the president’s massive TACO trades on the ups and downs of oil prices that happen with every announcement he makes (as covered here for paying subscribers). It’s so clear with names now attached and dollars invested on each date that it almost looks like insider trading is the president’s real motive for running this war because it would certainly explain why he flips and flops so much.
The big money is made on the spikes in each direction FOR THE FEW WHO KNOW WHEN AND WHAT THE PRESIDENT WILL ANNOUNCE! The amount of money made in the churn has been immense.
The president’s pinch
While the president may be slow to exit the war because the amount of money Trump & Co. are amassing off the TACO trades is intoxicating, I’m sure he wants to get out for political reasons since the war is hyugely unpopular with his base (and almost everyone else), and he doesn’t want to get his wings clipped in the next election, which could lock him up in defensive battles for the rest of his term if Republicans lose congress.
However, the president now has a bigger reason to really, REALLY want to make a deal with Iran, as he keeps saying they want to do when clearly they don’t because they walk away from every opportunity. In fact, they even seem to be trying to blow this one up as our story today will show.
The big reason Trump wants out, which got splattered all over the news this week and especially today is that US is running seriously low on defensive weaponry and even low on some offensive weaponry because, as enumerated in stories below, we already expended so much in defending Israel during its Gaza War and Hezbollah War and in helping Ukraine for years that the president’s newest war is finally draining the US down to critical stocks. He is basically having to slow his attacks down in order to ration the weaponry. It turns out the US is not infinite in power and invincible. Who could have known?
The funny thing in today’ news is the way he’s talking out of both sides of his mouth. He’s boiling over at those who leaked his heated conversation with Chief Warmonger Pete Hegseth about weapon shortages to where he says the “leakers” will be pursued, found and punished to the fullest extent. Out of the other side of his mouth with the other branch of his ambidextrous forked tongue he says that none of what they said is true. Well, hold on a minute here! How can you accuse people of leaking conversations that you actually deny at the same time ever happened!
According to the White House even the conversations that were reported didn’t happen. It’s all “fake news.” If that’s the case, they are not “leaks.” They’re just lies told by liars, which is a lot different than leaking information that can hurt your country because it tips your enemy off to how unsustainable your war effort is becoming—tells them how well their war of attrition is actually working.
President Donald Trump’s frustration over the Iran war boiled over at Camp David last week, where he demanded answers from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on why he had apparently been misled on extreme munitions shortages that now threaten to limit military options with Iran, two people familiar with the exchange told The Washington Post….
The shortages, particularly in long-range guided missiles and air-defense interceptors, have been part of the reason Trump has pulled back from launching additional massive strikes against Iran in recent days, one of the sources said.
The president asserted overnight that the United States has “massive amounts” of munitions, saying in a post on Truth Social that “large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to the U.S. as needed.” The “‘leakers’ of these treasonous statements are being hunted down,” he added.
But if there was nothing to leak?
Back at Camp David, as he was confronted by Trump over the bare weapons stockpile, Hegseth defended himself and blamed his deputy, Stephen Feinberg, for the shortages and for not ensuring Trump was fully apprised of the issue, both people familiar said.
The exchange underscored Trump’s increasing frustration with his defense secretary, who was one of the biggest early advocates for taking military action against Iran, convincing Trump it would be a quick and relatively easy win, according to multiple officials.
Well, this is what you should expect when you make a mere talking head at Fox News head of your entire military.
“This is 100% fake news. Literally never happened. And President Trump has the utmost confidence in Secretary Hegseth,” said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt in response to questions from The Post….
“Secretary Hegseth did not mislead anyone about our munitions posture, and he did not blame Deputy Secretary Feinberg. These claims about depleted stockpiles, internal disagreements, the Secretary’s position on Iran … are equally fictional,” Pentagon chief spokesman Sean Parnell said.
So how do you leak completely fictional stories? The enraged Trump says he will find out who the leakers are and make them pay as he defends Hegseth:
Trump vows jail for ‘treasonous leakers’ over missile shortage report in latest Truth Social rant
President rages that any insiders who spoke to the press will be ‘hunted down’ and face ‘long term jail sentences’ after White House denies confrontation with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over weaponry used against Iran….
With the conflict now approaching its sixth month, the U.S. Army has reportedly significantly depleted its stockpile of long-range missiles, raising concerns about the military’s readiness for potential future engagements….
Sources told Reuters this week that “virtually all” of the Army’s crucial surface-to-surface weapons – the Army Tactical Missile Systems and Precision Strike Missiles – have now been utilised.
The leaked stories about conversations that never happened certainly square up with other independent reports:
A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies released in late July similarly found that while the military had 2,330 Patriot systems and 452 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems before the war, it now has only an estimated 759 to 827 Patriots and 234 to 278 THAADs left.
Trump’s jail threat against the leakers meanwhile follows a similar warning he issued last month against the “vandals” and “sleazebags” he continues to insist sabotaged the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, who he said would “pay a big price for the damage done.”
The Department of Justice has since backed away from prosecuting four people accused of tearing up the pool, infuriating the president still further.
But the president publicly defends Hag’sbreath:
The president has consistently praised Hegseth, saying he looks straight out of “central casting” and that “he loves war.”
That’s what matters to me—a guy who looks the part and loves war.
Since taking office, Trump has launched military operations in seven countries: in Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela.
But, no, we’re not stretched thin from all those new wars (or US re-involvement in old wars) in Trump’s first year. The stories about overstretched munitions are not true according to Team Trump. Still, those who leaked that information will be punished.
Stockpile pressures are not a new challenge. Before the war even started, Caine warned Trump that the U.S. did not have the stockpiles necessary to sustain a prolonged conflict.
Well, here we are. It is now turning into the prolonged quagmire I said it would be and Trump desperately wants out—begging for Iran to beg for a deal over and over, which Iran keeps not doing. It cold-shouldered Trump entirely on the current deal that is in play, but I’ll come back to that.
I like to quote Alex Jones for one reason only. He was such a huge Trump supporter during the campaign, so when he turns so adamantly against Trump along with other major Trump supporters, you have a lot of influential people who are arguing against their own bias, and Jones says,
For The 55th Time, Trump Says Iran Has 1 Last Chance At Negotiations As US Runs Out Of Munitions!
On the Tuesday show Alex Jones covered President Donald Trump’s latest “last chance” warning he’s given to Tehran as the war becomes an unending quagmire.
The president’s pain
If you want to see how hard pressed Trump is, look at the deal he’s been shouldered out of. It gives Iran everything Iran has demanded all along, and gives Trump nothing, but he was still pushing for Iran to get the deal done, almost as if he’s so desperate to find a way out of the war he started that he’ll take a total loss at this point and find a way to spin it.
EXCEPT that Iran threw a big wrench into the deal right at the end of its negotiations, which will make this deal a VERY hard pill for Trump to swallow. Before we go there, let’s start with the initial reports from yesterday and then see how the story developed away from any direction Trump would be able to stomach, almost as though they want to be sure the deal really sticks it to him.
NO DIRECT US-IRAN TALKS HAVE HAPPENED….however, the channel via Oman, it looks like the US will concede to allow Iran to be the “gate keeper” of the strait.
According to the proposal, this would restore the strait as an open waterway.
This proposal would give Iran authority over vessels entering the Gulf, while Oman would manage outbound traffic.
Iran is also seeking visibility over outgoing ships and the ability to intervene under “certain circumstances.”
That means Iran could potentially decide which tankers, cargo vessels and military linked ships enter the Persian Gulf….
And Iran may also be permitted to collect transit or “security” fees.
Iran wants charges of 5%–7% of cargo value, Oman has suggested roughly 3%. (Gregory Mannarino)
That was the most complete summary I found yesterday, and it squared with tidbits about the deal spread in other accounts yesterday, so I ran with that version. It sounded bad enough but I was inclined to agree that Trump is now feeling enough pressure that he MIGHT accept such a lousy deal.
Iran wanted to make it harder on him—make him pay, squeeze his privates or something like that. So Iran kept negotiating with Oman, and the next reports out indicated they had tightened the deal up a bit. As soon as the Iran announced a deal had been agreed to that now just awaited Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei,’s signature, they also poked Trump in the eye by saying that the deal would be immediately withdrawn if he did anything to interfere:
A statement from Iran’s Foreign Ministry warns that the United States and military ‘interference’ remain the biggest obstacles to a final Hormuz deal to reopen the strait:…
“The understanding between Iran and Oman, in itself, cannot guarantee the safety of the Strait for passing ships, because the factors that create insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, particularly those stemming from the United States, such as the naval blockade and other aggressive and threatening actions against Iran and its interests, still exist….”
Ships would not be charged fees during the temporary arrangement, the people added.
If a deal holds and the strait reopens, the US would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports and reinstate a waiver to allow Iran to sell oil and petroleum-related products, one of the people said….
Iranian pundits and state media continue touting this as a ‘victory’ over the US-Israeli war of aggression:
“Ali Akbar Dareini, a Tehran-based researcher at the Center for Strategic Studies, has said Iran is aiming to ‘stabilise’ its control over the Strait of Hormuz, which is its ‘biggest military achievement of the war.’
So, the deal also left a way for Iran to charge its tolls after a 60-day interim phase.
It also said nothing at all about what the Houthis are doing in the Red Sea to block oil shipments. It was strictly an agreement between the two nations that border the Strait of Hormuz. That means the Houthis remain free to do as they will and as they are.
Israel, of course, did all it could to make any agreement to the deal by Trump difficult:
Trump was spinning it differently:
President Trump said late Tuesday that talks with Iran are “moving along very nicely” - in a highly fluid and ambiguous situation where it appears the two sides are only interacting indirectly at best….
Al Jazeera freshly cites Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB which reports that talks between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz “have nothing to do with the United States”. But Washington is presenting it as a US-Oman deal for the strait’s reopening, even if it fundamentally remains an Iranian-Omani proposal….
He told Fox that the White House is now having “very good discussions” with Iranian officials as part of an “all-day negotiation” and that the Strait of Hormuz reopening “is going to be open very soon.”
Uh huh.
“If they back out again, they are going to get hit really hard,” the president told the outlet. He had said the same by close of last week, but by the weekend reversed course and decided to refrain from attacking Iran again.
Sure.
That’s when Iran stuck it to the president even harder:
We’ve got a report from state TV today citing an informed source who said that even if a deal were reached today, the breach of the Memorandum of Understanding agreement by the US means there won’t be a reopening of the strait. One of the key points of concern for the Iranians regarding the strait is the removal of the naval blockade by the Americans. They have been constantly saying that this is one of the pre-conditions.
Effectively, “We, Iran and Oman, have come to a deal that gives us complete control of all traffic through the strait, but we won’t open the strait at all under this deal until you get your butt out of there.”
That’s what the original language meant by “other parties not interfering.” Not hard to see that was coming.
Zero Hedge summed up the outcome at that point as follows:
If all the above comes into force, it will widely be seen as a victory for Iran. It will leave Iran with greater control over energy transit than before the war. Simultaneously this would be Trump essentially cutting and running in order to finally extricate American forces from the deepening quagmire, while he approaching [sic.] the six-month mark since Operation Epic Fury started.
All in line with where I have been saying this was going from day one.
But that wasn’t tough enough. That’s not the part where Iran stuck a thumb in Trump’s eye to make it almost impossible for him to bear the pain of signing the deal. At the last minute, perhaps because Trump kept pretending he was the one in charge of negotiations even though no one was even listening to him, they added this:
Iran’s Hormuz Strait plan reportedly blocks U.S., Israeli ships; U.S. rejects any ‘impediments’
U.S. and Israeli ships would be blocked from passage through the Strait of Hormuz under the terms of a draft plan on how to manage the economically vital waterway, Iranian state news outlet Fars reported Thursday.
So, “Yes, we are agreeing between the two of us to eventually open the strait after you get your butt out of there, and we will be charging “fees” down the road, BUT none of your ships are going through and neither are any of Israel’s.”
So, Trump doesn’t get the strait opened up unless he ends his blockade, and then he still doesn’t get any passage—perhaps ever—for US or Israeli ships! Take that in your eye!
The president’s plight
Suddenly it becomes a little more problematic to figure out whether Trump is likely to end the war with this deal, even with as desperately as he wants to end it. He has to end his blockade, knowing that US ships will not be allowed through the strait, meaning those already in the gulf will be held hostage against whatever further arrangements Trump hopes to make for the uranium, which is also completely out of the deal because this is only a deal about managing the strait between Oman and Iran, and uranium has nothing to do with that. TRUMP WINS NOTHING!
That is where Iran has placed him if he wants to get this deal.
No wonder oil went back to rising, and the stock market went back to quivering; but, wait, there’s more.
Trump rejected the deal:
The U.S. appeared to quickly reject the terms under consideration, which emerged after President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had said a deal between the U.S. and Iran could come by Wednesday or Thursday.
“Any temporary routes will be without any impediments — meaning no approvals or permissions and no tolls or charges,” a U.S. official told CNBC when asked about the Fars report. “The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway and no party controls the lanes or the ability to transit through them,” the official added.
“Sorry,” Iran said, “We weren’t consulting you. Did you think we were asking for your opinion. This is the deal we’ve already made with Oman, and it’s how we are operating from this point forward. The strait stays closed, in the meantime, until you get your butt out of there.” That puts Trump back to begging for a better deal -or- threatening to annihilate Iran forever and ever … again.
And here is the hostage part:
The restrictions will extend to “countries and individuals that have caused damage to Iran” until that harm is “compensated,” according to the report.
And that, of course, is why the deal stipulates Iran has right of refusal of passage on the Oman side under “certain circumstances.” Iran intends to hold all US ships that are already at anchorage in the gulf hostage until the US coughs up everything it will cost to cover the damages the US has wrought in its fight with Iran.
So, this is NOT Iran backing off. This is Iran pressing forward … HARD.
However, to make it harder still for Trump to get anything,
A separate Gulf government official told MS NOW the deal has been endorsed by the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Now we can see how Iran has been able to say throughout these negotiations with Oman,
Gharibabadi said that the “path of understanding is between Iran and Oman, and no negotiations with the US have taken place during this period.”
There is truly nothing in the deal, as it stands and has been approved by the Gulf Cooperation Council, that Trump could stomach, but he may have to accept it if he wants to get out of the quagmire.
The first note about banning US-linked vessels could alone serve to restart the war. The White House has appeared to genuinely be searching for an exit strategy, but this may be too hard a pill to swallow, if accurate.
Shortly thereafter, Iran’s Fars news agency spelled out the deal a little more clearly to make sure no points are misunderstood:
The passage of vessels belonging to the United States, Israelis and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz will be prohibited.
Ships related to Israel, whether military or civilian, will not have the right to transit through this area.
Vessels or cargoes that play a role in actions against the Resistance Front will also be subject to the ban.
Countries and individuals that have caused damage to Iran will not receive permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf until compensation is paid.
Heavy fines, including up to 20% of the value of the goods, will be imposed on violators. The cargo is anticipated.
The president’s punishment!
Nevertheless, in case all of that did not make it clear enough to the president that Iran is not backing down one iota:
Separately, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Centre said Thursday it had received reports of explosions near tankers off Yemen and Oman on Wednesday.
Iran made it clear there is no ceasefire, the war is still on, and that it will keep pummeling and even destroying ships until the president vacates. Both sides of the Arabian Peninsula are still being attacked, and that also explains why oil started climbing back up again today, as has been the pattern for months and why stocks trembled.
Oil jumped again on the reports of attacks in the Hormuz Strait area:
Unsurprisingly,
Gulf Shipping Grinds to a Halt Following Houthi Missile Claim
Vessel traffic at the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait crumbled on Wednesday from the previous day amid a Houthi claim they have hit a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea and hopes that Oman and Iran could reach a deal on jointly managing Hormuz.
Just for fun, Iran’s lead negotiator also poked the president in the eye:
IRGC Strikes ‘Hostile Targets’ In Hormuz As Iran Declares Oman Deal Bans US Vessels From Strait
After explosions were heard on Qeshm island, near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media is saying that Iranian forces attacked and struck ‘hostile targets’ - though the event still remains shrouded in mystery and few details were offered.
Then the details emerged:
Yesterday witnessed at least the eighth Saudi oil tanker attacked by the Houthis since the maritime blockade began on July 22, which is being followed by reports the Yemeni rebel group backed by Iran could be preparing for all-out war with Saudi Arabia….
The group struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Wednesday and coupled the action with a threat to intensify attacks in order to close “all access routes” to Saudi oil shipments….
A second oil tanker identified as Daisy was subsequently hit in the Gulf of Aden with a ballistic missile and “forced to turn back….”
The Saudis aren’t ready to take this laying down, even if the ratcheting Red Sea region conflict threatens fragile Oman-sponsored talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as on Thursday its proxy the Yemeni Armed Forces - representing the official government whose seat is in Aden in the south - announced preparations for a large new military operation….
So now it seems that even if a grand Hormuz deal to reopen energy transit can be pulled off with some level of sticking power, there will have to be a separate ceasefire to contain the Yemen and Bab al-Mandab Strait crisis.
That all put a little shiver up oil’s spine, too, as it continues to punish the president with a near-total shutdown of Middle Eastern oil. Iran split the two straits up into separate deals to be made by leaving the Red Sea completely out of the package.
Two of the ships fired upon limped back into submission, and one sank to the bottom the sea!
Worse still, now it’s a land war:
The president’s performance
It ain’t over till it’s over, and it ain’t over til the faT rump sings, and Iran is making him sing until it stings.
Eight ships crossed the strait on Tuesday, according to Kpler, compared with roughly 130 to 140 daily transits before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28.
Oil prices initially fell on expectations that an agreement could restore Gulf exports, before Brent crude recovered to around $80 per barrel as attacks on regional shipping continued.
And now, as I finish writing this editorial, Brent is already back up to $83.82.
If any of this sounds to ANYONE like, “Iran really, REALLY wants to make a deal. They’re calling me, and they want a deal badly,” they must have Trump Derangement Syndrome just like the president. Iran has the old man right where they want him—flat on his back in the hot desert sun. He desperately wants out of this war because he can no longer adequately defend US military bases in the region, many of which he has abandoned because they are no longer defensible, and Iran is saying, “Lick the bottom of our sandals if you want out, then pay us for everything you destroyed. Until then, you aren’t goin’ anywhere!”
