Iran Ups the Cost of Reprisal by an Order of Magnitude. Israel Deliberates.

I'm sure we'll know very soon what they decided.

Apr 15, 2024

Iran has upped its threat to ten times what it just did if Israel responds to the weekend war. Israel has already promised a rapid response but indicated it would take 24 hours to consider all of its options. That ticking clock, since the statement was made, would place a response close to the time you receive this edition of The Daily Doom. So, you may know the response or the opening salvos by the time you read this.

Since the weekend article was a big read for everyone and a big job putting it together, I’m going to go light this afternoon, but there are lots of news headlines today, particularly about the Israel-Iran war, available to all. I’ll let the following quote give some idea of how Israel’s conversations might be going as we wait to see what they decide.

After my Sunday “Apoceclipse article” about the weekend’s Israel-Iran explosion into full Middle-Eastern war and the war’s eerie connections to the solar eclipse that same week, I received the following information by email this morning as we all wait to see whether the war blows up into a wider regional conflict with Israel at the center or settles down. It presents one prior insider’s point of view on why Israel’s response was not immediate (though there is no reason it needed to be immediate, but even Israel says it needs to be quick in coming):

According to former Israeli Intelligence official and regional analyst Avi Melamed … Israel's war cabinet's seeming indecision reflects the many complexities its calculating in its counterstrike, balancing it with its desire for diplomatic support for its Rafah operation while also restoring its deterrence capacity with Iran.
Melamed shared:
“Israel's war cabinet's seeming indecision reflects the many complex calculations it must make as it plans its response to Iran’s aggression. While the U.S. is not wrong in stating that the aerial defense and the consolidation of the coalition in Israel’s defense was a great success for Israel against Iran during the Saturday night/Sunday morning attack, the region, including Iran is watching to see if Israel is capable of mounting a response, and a failure to do so will result in added risk for Israel of future attacks from Iran and other enemies.
In Middle East geopolitics, perception is key, as is projection of power and deterrence capacity. That being said, for the moment, the U.S. has advocated for Israel not to launch a wide-scale attack on Iran and Israel has the opportunity to use that U.S. priority to its advantage in pushing the U.S. for the diplomatic support of its incursion into Rafah and dismantling of the Iranian proxies- Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad there. Likely, these conversations have already started and it's clear that following Iran’s attack, Israel has already mobilized additional reserve forces to deploy to Gaza.
It's very possible that Israel will respond to the direct attack with a series of covert operations within Iranian borders, telegraphing Israel’s deterrence capabilities, while highlighting Iranian exposure to Israel’s military and intelligence prowess. These operations are likely to start in the near future.”

We’ll probably know by how Israel responds Tuesday, and Iran just said any response from Israel will receive another response from Iran, not in days this time, but in seconds.

Incidentally, poll responses to that apocalyptic article came in, so far, as follows:

Not a broad sampling, but as there are over 80% who would like to see articles like that or are open to them once in a while, I’ll probably do one once in awhile, as appropriate to the times. Maybe I’ll warn you about its apocalyptic/religious nature so the 18% can simply indulge me that day by skipping over that particular one. (If you read the article—or want to—and want to tip the balance either way, the poll is still open for a couple of days.)