This morning, the S&P 500 joined the bear parade and crashed into a full-blown bear market. So did EVERYTHING ELSE that is melting down around the world this morning!
David, I’m sensing a bit of anger and frustration by you at the current administration. It appears you do not “trust the plan”… we’ll, that makes two of us.
The financial system couldn’t continue as is but this is shaping up to be in unpleasant crash. How long do you give it before banking holidays and social safety net payment checks are missed? Do the tariffs ultimately damage the supply chain and cause significant loss of jobs? Will this make the Great Depression look like the “good ol’ days”?
I agree. The system was going to collapse. The tariffs are senseless as they've been worked out in a way that is self-contradictory. They add unnecessary damage in huge ways. Here's an article I'll be posting tomorrow in the headlines that lays out pretty well why it is they are nonsense. I could add a reason or two, but this covers it pretty well:
I good example is that Trump keeps saying the tariffs are our new tax system to raise revenue. Well, it is mutually exclusive to claim they are a revenue system, which needs to be long-term to be any use as a source of revenue and, at the same time, claim they are a bargaining tool that countries can bargain away if they just remove their tariffs. You can't have it both ways. If they are a bargaining tool to get better trade deals, then they are far too shorter to be a new meaningful part of your tax system. He claims repeatedly that VAT is a tariff, and that is just plain ignorant. It's a sales tax applied equally to US products and each country's own products. Those are just a couple of examples. The article gives others.
I can't predict any dates for when Social-Security checks might not show up because even the SSA can't predict that. They're just feeling that the whole SSA system is being rendered so rickety that it is likely to fail.
The tariffs do seriously damage supply chains. We saw that last time when Trump imposed tariffs. From the time his tariffs went into place companies started complaining about broken supply chains making it hard for them to manufacture products. These tariffs are so much greater and broader, that the breakage will be worse. And that will likely cause job losses because, if you can't get the parts, you can't run the assembly line.
Funny to me how the people who thought Joe Biden had lost it (as he clearly had) cannot see that their own guy has lost it, too. Just look at his many reasons for tariffs and how they contradict each other. Nations that are meaningless to us for trade have some of the highest tariffs. An island with nothing but birds has tariffs. There are no people there to pay the tariffs, and the island exports nothing to the US. We export nothing to it, so it cannot have a trade imbalance. He claims the tariffs are for revenue generation, but he also claims they are bargaining tools that can be taken away if nations trade well with us. You can't take them away and use them as any kind of reliable revenue source; yet, he's said they will be our new revenue system and even replace income tax.
It's a total mess of contradictions made up on the fly. He claims the tariffs won't create inflation, but they add 50% to the price of everything coming in from China. How are they not going to cause inflation at that level? It's completely absurd that you can even think that is true because we cannot produce the items as cheaply here and won't be able to produce many of them at all for a few years, and we have no trading partners to turn to to get them without high tariffs because we are placing high tariffs on all of them at the same time. It's just utter nonsense. Yet, you can't see it because he's your guy, just like the Dems that couldn't see SloMoJo had dementia.
That's what is wrong with the country. Team politics where no one sees their own team with a trace of honesty.
Dear David, there are a few of us old traders still around, the stock market has been in a bubble since 1987 it was always going to pop. The market needed a pin, tariffs was the pin, the world is full of pins. I thought it would be Debt, I was wrong, there is NO going back. My target is below 3,000 on the Dow, buckle-up, the ride has just got started. God Bless and stay safe.
David, I’m sensing a bit of anger and frustration by you at the current administration. It appears you do not “trust the plan”… we’ll, that makes two of us.
The financial system couldn’t continue as is but this is shaping up to be in unpleasant crash. How long do you give it before banking holidays and social safety net payment checks are missed? Do the tariffs ultimately damage the supply chain and cause significant loss of jobs? Will this make the Great Depression look like the “good ol’ days”?
You seem to have a crystal ball…
I agree. The system was going to collapse. The tariffs are senseless as they've been worked out in a way that is self-contradictory. They add unnecessary damage in huge ways. Here's an article I'll be posting tomorrow in the headlines that lays out pretty well why it is they are nonsense. I could add a reason or two, but this covers it pretty well:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2025/04/07/trumps-tariffs-are-turning-the-us-into-a-global-laughing-st/
I good example is that Trump keeps saying the tariffs are our new tax system to raise revenue. Well, it is mutually exclusive to claim they are a revenue system, which needs to be long-term to be any use as a source of revenue and, at the same time, claim they are a bargaining tool that countries can bargain away if they just remove their tariffs. You can't have it both ways. If they are a bargaining tool to get better trade deals, then they are far too shorter to be a new meaningful part of your tax system. He claims repeatedly that VAT is a tariff, and that is just plain ignorant. It's a sales tax applied equally to US products and each country's own products. Those are just a couple of examples. The article gives others.
I can't predict any dates for when Social-Security checks might not show up because even the SSA can't predict that. They're just feeling that the whole SSA system is being rendered so rickety that it is likely to fail.
The tariffs do seriously damage supply chains. We saw that last time when Trump imposed tariffs. From the time his tariffs went into place companies started complaining about broken supply chains making it hard for them to manufacture products. These tariffs are so much greater and broader, that the breakage will be worse. And that will likely cause job losses because, if you can't get the parts, you can't run the assembly line.
David
You are one unhinged old man
Give us your correct pinprick
You have lost it
Funny to me how the people who thought Joe Biden had lost it (as he clearly had) cannot see that their own guy has lost it, too. Just look at his many reasons for tariffs and how they contradict each other. Nations that are meaningless to us for trade have some of the highest tariffs. An island with nothing but birds has tariffs. There are no people there to pay the tariffs, and the island exports nothing to the US. We export nothing to it, so it cannot have a trade imbalance. He claims the tariffs are for revenue generation, but he also claims they are bargaining tools that can be taken away if nations trade well with us. You can't take them away and use them as any kind of reliable revenue source; yet, he's said they will be our new revenue system and even replace income tax.
It's a total mess of contradictions made up on the fly. He claims the tariffs won't create inflation, but they add 50% to the price of everything coming in from China. How are they not going to cause inflation at that level? It's completely absurd that you can even think that is true because we cannot produce the items as cheaply here and won't be able to produce many of them at all for a few years, and we have no trading partners to turn to to get them without high tariffs because we are placing high tariffs on all of them at the same time. It's just utter nonsense. Yet, you can't see it because he's your guy, just like the Dems that couldn't see SloMoJo had dementia.
That's what is wrong with the country. Team politics where no one sees their own team with a trace of honesty.
You are very self righteous.
I get your sentiment and your opinions.
But the present group has been in for 2 months!!!!
Please don't think that you have all the answers in every quick bite minute.
Reflect a little.
You might be right but settle down.
I think you just want the world to implode or rather YOU know that it has imploded.
This message will not sink into your brain.
So, I will continue to follow your screens.
Good luck old man
I'm old too
Randy
Failing to grasp the logic of closing comments by free subscribers on your paid columns...
It's a limitation of Substack. Nothing I can do about it.
TY for reply.
Dear David, there are a few of us old traders still around, the stock market has been in a bubble since 1987 it was always going to pop. The market needed a pin, tariffs was the pin, the world is full of pins. I thought it would be Debt, I was wrong, there is NO going back. My target is below 3,000 on the Dow, buckle-up, the ride has just got started. God Bless and stay safe.
Thanks Charles. I've got my three-point harness on!