Today will be short. The internet was down all morning at work, where I usually have four hours from 10:00 to 2:00 to do The Daily Doom. After waiting and hoping for too long, I’ve skipped off to a coffee shop twenty-five minutes away to hammer out what I can before I have to drive back to work.
The main thing I’ll point out is the decaying state of the US economy. While this is the ADP report, not the government report, October’s net job gains got revised down (in what has become normal fashion for the government but not so much for ADP’s payrolls report), and November’s numbers looked worse than expected. October got revised down from a gain of 233,000 jobs to +184,000 jobs, and November came in below economists’ expectations at +146,000.
While this is not devastating news, it shows the labor market continuing to break down, leaving one wondering how long until unemployment goes parabolic, as was discussed with excellent graphics in Adam Taggart’s video posted here yesterday.
The real damage was in the manufacturing sector, which just saw its biggest job losses since June of last year. You can see in the following graph US manufacturing looks like it has been in a recession for months now:
In spite of the job losses, wage growth actually started to rise again, which is good for helping workers beat past inflation and equally good for causing new inflation—so a Catch-22 situation that says, again, inflation is not done with us yet.
Now, we’ll have to see what the loser Biden Administration has to report for the government now that it has no hope of gaming the voting public into a victory vote for the Democrats with its past year of the worst engineered numbers I’ve ever seen. Will, they try to hold together his economic “accomplishment” to try to save his supposed legacy. I suspect so because it would seem to serve them better to game it to the end. Then, as it becomes more and more impossible to maintain the pretense, hand the torch over to Team Trump to take the losses.
Or have they already reached the end of their ability to massage the numbers higher with “seasonal adjustments” and then remove some of the massaging in constant later revisions?
Time to run back to work in a hurry!
See you tomorrow.
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