Lowdown on the Slowdown: Here's a Short List of the Shortages
The shortages are stacking up like containers in LA, faster than one can process them into simple lists in articles. Here is the latest stack from headlines of major publishers.
Big grocery starved, prices to skyrocket
In Denver, public-school children are facing shortages of milk. In Chicago, a local market is running short of canned goods and boxed items.... More than a year and a half after the coronavirus pandemic upended daily life, the supply of basic goods at U.S. grocery stores and restaurants is once again falling victim to intermittent shortages and delays.
“I never imagined that we’d be here in October 2021 talking about supply-chain problems, but it’s a reality,†said Vivek Sankaran, chief executive officer of Albertsons Cos., who echoed the laments of other retailers. “Any given day, you’re going to have something missing in our stores, and it’s across categories....â€
“It just continues to pop up. It’s like playing whack-a-mole.â€
'‘People Are Hoarding’: Food Shortages Are The Next Supply-Chain Crunch"
The owner of a New York City supermarket chain predicted the food prices will increase sharply in the coming months, with some increasing 10 percent in the next two months....
John Catsimatidis, the billionaire supermarket owner of Gristedes and D’Agostino Foods, warned that food giants such as Nabisco, PepsiCo, and Coca-Cola will prioritize raising prices on products ... adding that the trend will not drop “anytime soon....â€
Americans are paying about 42 percent more on average for a gallon of gas than a year before.... They’re also paying 10.5 percent more for eggs, meat, poultry, and fish; 4 percent more for coffee; 19 percent more for bacon; 6 percent more for peanut butter; 27 percent more for propane, kerosene, and firewood; 5.2 percent more for electricity; 24.4 percent more for used vehicles; and 7.1 percent more for appliances.
"Billionaire Supermarket Owner Warns: Food Prices Will Go Up ‘Tremendously’"
And that's the short list on groceries.
It's already causing shortages for children in school cafeterias:
“We have taken action to open accounts with other vendors in an attempt to diversify our supply options,†officials said in a Facebook post on Saturday. “This is a situation that is frustrating for you as a parent, and for us as well as our ability to feed our students is being greatly impacted...."
She says the department will “exhaust all efforts†before closing a school due to shortages....
“As a last resort, we may also ask that you prepare to have virtual/remote school days a few days out of the week to alleviate the stress of our food supplies....â€
“We know that a child cannot learn when hungry,†said Lowe.
"Alabama school district warns of food shortages, asks for parent help after deliveries fail"
To aid you in your hoarding efforts, here is a list of specific items at grocery stores around the US that are already commonly turning up in shortest supply:
Chicken
Fish sticks
Coffee
Diapers
Frozen meals
Marie Calendar's pot pies
McCormick spices
Rice Krispie treats
Some detergents
and, of course, toilet paper and paper towels (one of the go-to substitutes)
The vicious feeding frenzy has begun
The supply-chain crisis is already feeding on itself in a viscous circle as retailers over-order because they fear winter shortages, causing larger port backups which make shortages even worse. At the same time, customers are already hoarding, leaving the over-ordering retailers still short, so they over-order even more. I don't want to encourage that, but you have to be prudent to protect yourself, too.
So, I recommend people start backing up the things they regularly use. I don't encourage big-time hoarding that puts a major run on the shelves for everyone as you pack out a grocery-cart overflowing onto the parking lot with TP, but grab double your usual amount each item you regularly buy each time you are in the store. That is, if you can without grabbing it out of someone else's hand. Put half of what you get in deep storage while using only the other half if you don't want to run out this winter.
Yes, it makes the immediate problem worse, which is why I don't advocate going crazy about it; but what are you going to do -- be the one caught out in the cold with no clothes on in the dead of winter? Better get some winter clothes now, too, if you know you need some. Christmas shopping will likely be a luxury problem.
Out-of-stock messages online are expected to be up 172% this holiday season compared with 2020 levels, and up 360% on a two-year basis, according to new data from Adobe Analytics. The apparel category is forecast to have the highest out-of-stock levels, Adobe said, followed by sporting goods, baby products and electronics.
The looming holiday season will likely exacerbate a global supply chain calamity that’s already underway, as shoppers rush into stores and onto websites to secure presents for loved ones.... “We’ve never seen levels like this before,†said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights....
To compile its holiday expectations, Adobe tracks more than 1 trillion visits to retailers’ websites in the United States and monitors over 100 million items sold online.
"Record shortages, shipping delays expected this holiday season"
In addition to grocery-store shortages, there are already well-known shortages of Nike shoes and iPhones in the making (well, one might more accurately say not in the making). Computers, computer parts, and cars continue to be in ever-shorter supply.
Retailers note that the first way prices will skyrocket is invisibly. How so? First, most price-reduction sales will dry up, and all coupon deals will blow away in the winter wind, twofers ended, etc. We've already seen sizes shrink, packet quantities reduced, and quality cut in numerous products. Now the incentives end. And, as noted above, prices have already risen dramatically anyway.
Don't panic buy, but be prudent. By graduating into stockpiling now, you may better avoid the panics that are likely to develop later and won't do any more than you have to that exacerbates the present situation. React, but don't overreact.
Are you Biden your tongue?
You can thank #BareShelvesBiden, but the fact is I was preaching this supply shortage was coming well before Biden entered office. It is a result of the damage from the 2020 economic lockdowns all over the world, the continuing resistance to find employment even after the 2020 enhanced unemployment benefits ended (as I prognosticated), the trade already damaged by numerous Trump Trade Wars in the previous two years as I covered all through that time, new COVID local lockdowns in diverse places around the world that are outside of US control, numerous semi-lockdowns all over the US (and other parts of the world) created by social distancing and other requirements that lessen the efficiency of work spaces, and the post-lockdown surge in buying that was enabled by the Fed largesse that began in a massive way under Trump (with his full support for helicopter money) and that has continued in massive efforts under Biden (with his full support).
One could see this coming from a long way off! As I said back in the early summer of 2020, you'll only know the economic damage from the lockdowns when you see how much doesn't start back up. Now we know. All of this, of course, will be made worse by the upcoming federal vaccine mandates, for which Biden gets 100% of the presidential blame, and the existing vaccine mandates in some states and cities where Democratic mayors and governors are primarily to blame.
You can say all of that was necessary to stem the plague. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. Some of it, maybe much of it is, in my opinion, is mass hysteria (even though the disease is real and can be deadly). Take, for example, China's extreme measure of shutting down an entire port because ONE person at the port had COVID. Was there not some less severe measure that would have stopped the spread from that one person? It reeks of knee-jerk overreaction.
Regardless of whether our national responses are hysterically over the top or are exactly what is needed, the damage these responses cause is already great and growing. No one should pretend otherwise. Everyone will have to face the real outcome of these measures, and that outcome is going to be a great deal of human struggle to overcome for many in the middle class and below and even suffering for some this winter and probably even deaths. One cannot escape real cause and effect with political wishes or party protectionism. That kind or denial is exactly the thing that exacerbates all of our troubles and bubbles. We would all do better if EVERYONE stopped papering over reality to protect their favorite politician, whether Trump or Biden.
The outcome of all of this was clear or the longterm severity and inflation effects of the shortages couldn't have been forecast here for more than a year. So, yes, our officials should have been able to see this coming as a direct result of their COVID responses.
Protecting one's own party on either side is the kind of ego defense that perpetuates our nation's troubles. It's always the other side's fault. In my opinion, both parties (and by that I mean the followers as much as the politicians) put their parties ahead of country all the time. It's always ..,., first, save the party; then, empower the party; and, finally, use the party's powers to do the things YOU think will be good for the country; but it is always party first ... on both sides.
Feel like you're being gassed?
I've already reported the soaring cost of natural gas and propane, but the reputable IHS Markit now says to expect "Armageddon" during the cold winter, as the situation is already terrible before winter has even begun and energy stockpiles have already been worse than decimated.
IHS analyst Edgar Ang told attendees during a virtual presentation on Tuesday that US propane inventories are at a record low and will be extremely tight as cold weather is ahead....
1Q22 prices ... "may indicate players are preparing for propane-market Armageddon." He warned some areas of the country might be prone to shortages this winter.... The surge comes as a global energy crunch threatens to derail the global economy. In a separate report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects households that use propane and heating oil this year will spend much more than last. This could strip out some of their spendings in other areas of the economy, such as eating out....
Making matters worse IHS expects a cooler winter.
Anyone hear "STAGflation" in all of that?
Those who have safe and secure or hidden storage space and room for 55-gallon drums, would be well advised to buy non-ethanol gasoline (the only kind that can really be stabilized for the winter in my experience) or diesel. Add fuel stabilizer, and store the barrel(s) topped off so you don't get any condensation inside until you have to start tapping your fuel reserves to make up for the shortages or extraordinary prices. If the big shortages don't materialize in the US as they already have elsewhere, use the fuel in the spring at a likely lower cost than what fuel will be priced at by spring. (You'll either need racks for the barrels to be able to drain after you install taps or a pump. That's so long as you don't have to store gasoline too close to your house. Diesel is much less volatile so not as big a risk. (Make sure it is stored where limbs and other storm damage can't break the barrels either.)
Major need of auto correct to repair auto repair shops
My wife has been driving on a bad wheel bearing for two months. It's not because we cannot afford whatever it costs to get it fixed in order to drive safely. It is because the part cannot be had. Her front wheel may melt down and enflame the tire before the part finally arrives. Her son was a Ford dealership mechanic, but even he can't get the Ford part. You can't fix what ain't broke, but you can go broke trying to fix what you can't fix. In this case, however, no extra money to gin up "preferred customer" status will likely help. It just ain't there. But you still gotta get to work, and it sure isn't just us struggling with this:
The world’s supply chain woes are bearing down on U.S. auto garages.
The challenge of finding spare parts as mundane as oil filters or carpeting has forced repair shops to hoard inventory, find workarounds and plead with customers for patience until a shipment comes in. Typical delays of a day or two have stretched into weeks in some cases, shop owners say....
In the Seattle suburbs, garage owner Bryan Kelley waited on parts for 60 to 90 days on two separate occasions while fixing pick-up trucks. One of the parts, a crankshaft position sensor, used to take a half hour to get from the distribution center, said Kelley, owner of Valley Automotive Repair and Electric....
The wait got so long that the customer was ready to give up on his Dodge Ram 1500…. No garage is being spared, whether franchise dealers who get their parts from the major automakers, independent warehouses, or small corner garages….
“This is the most difficult supply-chain environment that I have ever seen,†AutoZone Inc. Chief Executive Officer William Rhodes said in a September earnings call. AutoZone is running “the lowest level of in-stock that I can ever remember,†said Rhodes, who started his career at the Memphis, Tennessee-based auto-parts retail giant in the 1990s and has been CEO since 2005....
The auto repair delays seem particularly acute in the U.S. because spare parts produced in Asia get tangled in the global shipping clog and cargo jams at seaports.
"Cars Get Stuck at U.S. Garages for Weeks in Spare-Parts Shortage"
Farm equipment is suffering the same gaping shortages of parts. That could exacerbate food shortages and price inflation down the road as broken equipment sits for weeks waiting for critical parts. To top it off John Deere employees are striking. One cannot blame them for using the crisis to strengthen themselves against corporate shareholders who have long retained every profit and every credit based on profits for themselves in every corporation they can. Workers are finally feeling empowered, and some are seizing the day.
Farmers say they sympathize with the desire for better wages, but they face equipment and parts shortages. A long strike could affect the food supply chain and their bottom lines.
As with used cars that are up in price because new cars are not available, so goes the story now with used tractors and other farm equipment:
Joel Everett said he was astounded when a lightly used 2009 John Deere tractor sold at his last auction in Strawberry Point, Iowa, for tens of thousands of dollars more than it had cost fresh off the production line more than a decade ago.
Bought new for $109,000, the tractor sold for $143,000 at auction, he said. It's not an isolated incident.... A lot of farm equipment, particularly used tractors, is selling for 30 percent to 50 percent more than it was two years ago....
"Our last sale was the biggest dollar sale we ever had, and we're fixing to have another in three to four weeks that's going to blow that one away."
Quality farm equipment is getting hard to find amid the supply chain shortage, many farmers and experts said, and its scarcity is driving up prices and raising questions about whether farmers' harvests and next year's planting season could be affected.
And now 10,000 JD workers have gone on strike.
A long strike could hamper the country's food supply chain, which has suffered shortages since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, which further delayed John Deere's ability to deliver products and parts in a timely manner. Farmers also worry that a delay could affect their increasingly thin margins.
Of course, additional JD workers will be fired by Biden for not getting vaccinated. Great timing! (I'll post my personal story about my vaccine battle in a separate article for broader dissemination later this week.)
Healthcare sickened by vaccine mandates
While I covered some of this before, I think it is worth reiterating.
It looks to me like Biden's vaccine mandates and state mandates are exacerbating all our COVID sufferings and deaths because they are the basis of many healthcare resignations and firings that anticipate the mandate's effective date. That means they are backfiring, making us less safe from COVID in some ways because the loss of more healthcare workers will make fighting COVID much harder in the months to come as flu season likely amplifies contagion!
People can clobber health-care workers all they want for quitting or not getting vaccinated or for striking for better hours or better pay (as most don't make anything close to doctor's wages), but they don't have to work to save our lives just because our lives needs saving. They owe us nothing! They've already done more than most and risked more than most.e
Hospitals taxed by the pandemic over the last 20 months have a new problem: Labor strife and a wave of resignations have people waiting longer for care.
Months of marathon shifts, an onslaught of verbal and even physical abuse from patients and the public, and perennial complaints over low pay and staffing shortages are stirring unrest at a particularly critical moment in the pandemic....
More than a half million health care workers quit in August, the last month for which data is available. That’s the most in a single month in more than 20 years.
The resignations and strikes hit as hospitals are dealing with the Delta variant, an influx of chronically ill patients who postponed care last year and, in many states, bracing for the colder months when Covid cases are expected to rise and flu season grips the nation....
Multiple employees contacted by POLITICO said health care workers feel like they’ve gone from “heroes to zeroes†in the eyes of the public, making it harder to tolerate the underlying stresses of the job.... on top of being burned out from nearly two years of fighting Covid, they’re being targeted threatened with physical violence....
Many staff members in Antioch — and across the country — say worker shortages mean it takes longer to admit people from the emergency room, and an increased risk of infections and accidents as fewer nurses care for more patients.
While the severe staffing shortages are largely developing over working conditions, fatigue and wages, vaccine mandates for hospital workers are already making the situation worse and are treating those who risked their lives like pariah for making their own risk determinations, which only affect them, as the vaccinated have been shown to be just as likely to be carriers as the unvaccinated (though they could be less contagious due to lack of symptoms).
Most health care workers are not exiting the work force because they have COVID or are dying from it; they are exiting because they are tired of fighting COVID and tired of dealing with COVID policies, while no one is paying them more to do all of that ugly work. Now many more are being forced out with no dignity or thanks because of their refusal to vaccinate.
Vaccine mandates hospitals recently imposed have triggered some isolated walkouts and strike threats.
While the above article goes on to try to diminish the vaccine threat, other articles make it clear that the vaccine mandate is playing a major role:
New York State's largest healthcare provider, Northwell Health, has fired 1,400 employees who refused to get COVID-19 vaccinations, according to a spokesman, Joe Kemp....
Northwell announced its vaccine mandate in August, weeks before the state requirement. The company's mandate extended to both clinical and non-clinical workers....
Political officials cite that around 16% of the New York state’s hospital workers, representing about 83,000 people, aren’t completely vaccinated. Roughly under 10% have not received a single shot. They’re demanding for employees to get their vaccinations—or else face the consequences....
New York-Presbyterian Hospital fired about 250 employees who refused to get vaccinated....
A North Carolina-based hospital system announced this week that roughly 175 unvaccinated employees were fired for failing to comply with the organization’s mandatory coronavirus vaccination requirements
"New York's largest healthcare provider fires 1,400 unvaccinated workers"
The list of hospitals terminating people over their vaccine refusals goes on and on. So, expect greater shortages in health care this winter, too. And, if you are unvaccinated, expect you are the first who will be turned away by local triage. However, if you are among the last to remain healthy because the vaccines severely damage people's health down the road, expect all the vaccinated to expect you to carry their dead weight.
If you're a healthcare worker, just remember they fired you for the very reason that you wind up among the few left to take care of them. They insisted on putting all the eggs of society in one basket as being wise in their eyes, and you stubbornly persisted at preserving some biological diversity. See if they thank you for your choice.
Likewise, if you are truck driver who delivers medical supplies who is terminated for refusing a vaccine, expect them to be angry that medical supplies are not making it through if they suffer undesirable outcomes from the vaccine in 3-4 years. You are lepers. You are Pariah. You are the great unwashed. Or as Bungling Biden puts it,
We've been patient, but our patience is wearing thin, and your refusal has cost all of us.
Don't expect them to praise you for your prudence if your refusal leaves you as one of the healthy minority struggling to carry a devastated society along.