Mining for Truth in the Smog of War
Iran rejects all of Trump's overtures about the war coming to a quick close by immediately doing the opposite of his demands and telling him where to shove his ceasefire.
Whether Trump was just trying to charm markets yesterday or was thinking he would play some 4D-chess to tempt Iran to surrender now, Iran isn’t having any of it. As a reference point for Iran’s defiant statements today, here is a summary of what I wrote yesterday about the dripping deceit of Trump’s words and the stock and oil markets’ willingness to lap it all up:
Markets swallowed his calming words today hook, line, and sinker…. Markets believed him so much they flip-flopped from death to resurrection….
Upon Trump jawboning (if that is all it is…), WTI is back down to $88 per barrel, and Brent is at $92. That is probably one of the biggest relief plunges in history. That is how much Trump’s sudden words this afternoon sounded like an imminent retreat from the battlefield.
I’m a little more suspicious that it is just more Trump blabbergassing, and he’ll be back to talking tough again in a few days (or less). Truth means nothing to this man. He says whatever is expedient at any moment and sells it hard. Nevertheless, his words certainly convinced the stock market and oil market of a major imminent reversal in the tides of war….
So, is this TACO taps out? Or is this just Donald Trump doing his usual snake-oil stuff and trying to jawbone drastically out-of-control markets back to better business with a little useful deception, while he fully intends to carry on with destroying oil fields?… So far, [the market] always believes whatever it wishes to be true, and Trump knows how to give it those rays of false hope it wishes for….
I write all this knowing full well that what sounded like a surrender may just be intense market manipulation because he chickened out over what was happening to the US economy from his war, so he thought he could fix it with a little snake charming….
The hope that markets were quick to grab in their greed seems utterly distant to me. Their willingness to keep believing this stuff is, itself, deeply disturbing….
Even though greedy investors sucked up all of Trump’s swill, Iran clearly did not. If yesterday was just an attempt to manipulate markets, it worked. If it was an attempt at 4D chess to tease Iran into surrendering quickly, as he offered slippery hopes of a quick close, it predictably failed, given their response today:
The Iranian Supreme National Security Council has told Donald Trump to ‘watch himself’ or be eliminated.
In other words they told him to use his tiny hands to shove his oil-soaked olive branch up TheRUMP. (Mostly said with intensified actions, but also a few strong words.)
The Council’s secretary, Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani, said in a statement: ‘The nation of Iran is not afraid of your empty threats….
The remarks come after Trump said earlier that he thought the war was ‘very complete’ and ‘far ahead of schedule’….
Despite this, Iran has doubled down on its defensive measures, launching new attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab countries today.
Sirens warned of incoming missiles in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, and in Bahrain….
Later in the morning, sirens also sounded in Jerusalem, and sounds of explosions could be heard in Tel Aviv as Israel’s defence systems worked to intercept incoming fire, not long after the military said it detected an Iranian missile launch….
That is not at all surprising. As I asked yesterday,
One day Trump says the war will rage on for months; the next, after a heavy stock crash and a spectacular rise in petroleum prices, he says it will all be over very soon. Ask yourself, “How can it be over very soon?” Do we really believe Iran will not endlessly seek revenge now that Trump has kicked the murder-hornet nest all over the Iranian dessert, destroying its economy and military for years to come?…
The clearest part of Iran’s response? (The choice words.)
‘We are definitely not looking for a ceasefire,’ Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf wrote on X.
‘We believe that the aggressor should be PUNCHED IN THE MOUTH so that he learns a lesson, so that he will never think of attacking our beloved Iran again.’
So, with Iran predictably showing no interest in a ceasefire now that Trump has kicked the hornets’ nest, Trump tried swinging back to intensified threats today, as I said he would likely do “in a few days or less”:
Despite thinking the war might end soon, Trump took to social media and said that if Iran stops the flow of oil in the Strait of Hormuz, the US would ‘make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back.’
And how did Iran respond to that existential threat?
It started mining the Strait of Hormuz!
One political analyst summed up yesterday’s bizarre Trumpet blast of imminent surrender (or instant and easy victory) this way:
Dr Bamo Nouri, senior lecturer in International Relations at the University of West London, told Metro that Trump’s claim is less of a definitive assessment and more of a calculated political message.
‘With global inflation still fragile, supply chains strained, and the ever-present risk of energy disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, the administration is under pressure to demonstrate control over a situation that many critics argue was entered without a clear strategic roadmap,’ he said.
Uh huh. Yesterday was just a desperate attempt to convince markets that he’s not worried; everything is under control, and we’re practically done anyway. The markets bought it because they are stupid like that. Why? Their greed caused them to desperately hope it was true, but Iran didn’t buy any of it.
Yesterday, I also claimed that none of Trump’s indicated objectives have been achieved, which made it premature to start offering what sounded like an olive branch (meaning it was far more likely just nonsense to jawbone markets back up). Today, I see that viewpoint shared by another analyst:
Dr Katayoun Shahandeh from the University of London told Metro: ‘What many Iranians [the people] feared from the beginning was that this war would devastate the country without producing any meaningful political change.
‘We now see widespread destruction, a crippled economy, and the same political system still firmly in place—with Mojtaba Khamenei now installed as Supreme Leader after the killing of his father, Ali Khamenei.’
Dr Shahandeh said deciphering if the war is over is difficult because Trump has ‘shifted the goalposts’ so many times.
Trump is a very mercurial president who frequently changes course, so the narrative around this conflict may shift just as quickly,’ she added.
‘The real question remains: what, in concrete terms, has actually been achieved – and what purpose did all this destruction ultimately serve, other than killing Khamenei?’
Instead, by claiming the war is almost ‘completed’, Trump might be trying to calm down markets and buy more time, Dr Nouri said.
Almost a summary of my own points about nothing being accomplished that looked like a military objective. Just gaslighting the markets by trying to appear in control in order to assure investors that none of their worst fears will materialize. It’s all vain talk.
‘While Washington may have initiated a war of choice, Tehran appears to be approaching it as a war of survival – arguably entering the confrontation with clearer expectations of a prolonged struggle,’ he added.
Or, as I put it, going one step further ….
Once you make it clear the only end for a regime is its complete end, they have no reason to care what they do to their own country or to the world. You have assured them their end is death no matter what. At that point, they just want to make sure you pay as much as you possibly can forever for what you’ve done to them. It is no longer about saving themselves or their country. It is just about making sure you pay as heavy a price as they can bring on
Apparently, they are not too worried about what Trump is going to do to them because they have no intention of backing down in hope they can save themselves. They have spent years getting ready for this: (As I noted before jihad must be defensive, and when the right defensive war is fought; they believe the Mahdi (their messiah) will return. So, they will fight with a religious fervor Trump does not even understand.)
Update(1555ET): A fresh Tuesday CNN report says that Iran has already begun laying mines in the vital oil transit Strait of Hormuz waterway:
Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all crude oil, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue.
The mining is not extensive yet, with a few dozen having been laid in recent days, the sources said. But Iran still retains upward of 80% to 90% of its small boats and mine layers, one of the sources said, so its forces could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway.
Trump’s response:
I’m sure their response to that was to lay more. Maybe we’ll know tomorrow.
(Headlines covering the war and videos of the damage Iran is recking plus articles that provide the quotes above fill the following section for paying subscribers:)
