Nuclear War Threat Mushrooms

I don't mean just the verbal threats from Putin and pals, which have been constant for nearly three years and resulted in nothing, but the actual risk of nuclear war.

US ATACMS missile

Yesterday’s news contained a lot of articles about President Biden making a big change in US policy controlling weapon use against Russia by Ukraine. The president finally authorized Ukraine to use some of the United State’s more powerful weapons like ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) to destroy targets inside of Russian boundaries. (As opposed to just inside the land Russia has seized and claimed is Russia.) The missiles delivered to Ukraine have been limited to a range of barely over 100 miles, so they are limited to use in the area along Ukraine’s border and in and around the parts of Russia that Ukraine, itself, has seized this year as a bargaining chip.

Nevertheless, Putin has long made clear that allowance of use of NATO missiles against Russian targets within Russia would be treated as a declaration of war by all NATO nations.

Russia had unofficially warned yesterday that use of these missiles would amplify the possibilities of nuclear war:

Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy head of the Russian upper house's international affairs committee, said Washington's decision to let Kyiv strike deep into Russia could lead to "World War Three"….

"The West has decided on such a level of escalation that it could end with the Ukrainian statehood in complete ruins by morning," Andrei Klishas, a senior member of the Federation Council, Russia's upper chamber of parliament, said on the Telegram messaging app.

Of course, Russia has often used or allowed voices like these that don’t speak directly for the executive (i.e., with no more declarative power than individual members of congress in the US who regularly blurt out blustery opinions) to bolster threats in order to leverage its many nukes to aid its war in Ukraine. So far, it has all proven to be saber rattling; but, at some point we will find Putin’s true red line, and we will find it the hard way.

Official government voices have been a little more measured:

“It is obvious that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to take steps, and they have been talking about this, to continue adding fuel to the fire and provoking further escalation of tensions around this conflict,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia went further at a U.N. Security Council meeting marking 1,000 days of war, saying Moscow is “astounded” that the leaders of Britain and France “are eager to play into the hands of the exiting administration and are dragging not just their countries but the entire Europe into large-scale escalation with drastic consequences.”

There was still no overt nuclear threat in those official government statements yesterday, though they could be read that ay. I haven’t been too concerned about crossing Russia’s Red Rubicon with measures taken up until now. Though the costs of crossing the Red line are extraordinary, the costs of Russian retaliation directly against NATO would also be extraordinary for Russia. I don’t think Putin is that foolish. I’m pretty sure he is intent upon seeing the Kremline continue to exist; so, I’ve recognized the saber-rattling for what it is while many others have sounded frantic about it. And recent history proves that opinion was correct. Nothing has actually happened.

However, once NATO weapons start destroying things inside Russia and not just destroying Russian military that is wrongfully (in Western opinion) invading Ukraine on Europe’s flank, the whole tilt of the battlefield changes.

And that just happened.

This policy change by Biden could also be a bid by the US military industrial complex—with Biden, at least, figuratively in charge—to escalate the war before Trump gains office in order to try to cut off Trump’s braggadocios pledge that he will end the war in Ukraine “in a day.” Biden will likely make sure Ukraine has enough US weaponry already in place and under Ukrainian control that, even once Trump enters office, there won’t be any way of sucking that water back under the bridge. Trump could place targeting restrictions back on the weapons that haven’t been used with the threat of withdrawing all support if they are ignored, but it’s not clear that he doesn’t intend to withdraw all support anyway, which would make that threat irrelevant.

Regarding Biden’s current change in policy as it now stands …

"Removing targeting restrictions will allow the Ukrainians to stop fighting with one hand tied behind their back," Alex Plitsas, senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, said….

Despite Zelenskiy's pleas, the White House had been reluctant to allow U.S.-supplied weapons to be used to strike targets deep inside Russia for fear this could ratchet up the conflict.

Well, that Rubicon has now been crossed.

Republican U.S. Representative Mike Turner, who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, said in a statement that Biden’s decision was long overdue and that there were still too many restrictions on Ukraine.

But he added: “This first step will put pressure on Vladimir Putin as President-elect Trump returns to the White House and works to end this war.”

Today, the battlefield tilted for good

Biden’s decision created a tectonic shift in the war between Russia and Ukraine and, by extension, the West. Ukraine was quick overnight to make use of the missiles to mark the 1,000-day anniversary of Putin’s War. Russia confirmed this morning that the ATACMS had been used on Russian military targets on Russian soil.

Just days after the US approved Ukrainian use of its far-reaching rockets - Kyiv's forces used them to blitz a military depot storing ammunition and anti-aircraft missiles.

It was the first time ever that embattled Kyiv was able to unleash the ballistic rockets on Russian soil - as the world today marks 1,000 days of Putin's bloody and illegal war.

Reports surfaced on Tuesday morning about the missile strike - with a Ukrainian defence source telling RBC that they had indeed used ATACMS rockets.

While Russia claimed it neutralized five of the six rockets sent its way, Putin’s response was immediate, if not already in the works. He revised (or proposed revisions for) Russia’s nuclear policy to make it possible for Russia to use nuclear weapons against any nuclear-armed nation that uses conventional weapons against Russia on Russian soil. Actually, the doctrinal revision may have been made prior to the missile strike with news coming out around the same time.

The Kremlin said it [the strike] marked the crossing of a red line - officially putting nuclear retaliation on the table.

Downing Street slammed the Russian government today for the fresh WW3 threat - with a Starmer spokesperson saying: "It would be fair to say it's the latest example of irresponsibility that we've seen from the depraved Russian government.

"We remain steadfast in our support for Ukraine and the defence of an illegal invasion, and we've always said that the defence of the UK starts in Ukraine."

Ukraine’s strike achieved a tactical goal that has arisen with Russia’s choice to add 10,000 North Korean soldiers to the battlefield, helping to disarm them:

Ukraine later confirmed that the warehouse they struck was storing North Korean ammunition and anti-aircraft missiles, via official Andriy Kovalenko on Telegram.

Humans are dispensable for North Korean’s “Rocketman,” Kim Jung Un, so he has plenty more he intends to send:

It follows reports that Putin's ally and fellow despot Kim Jong-Un is readying to send 100,000 troops to help him in his brutal war.

They always have been, which is clear from the fact that Kim’s nuclear policies have left it strangled with lack of food for decades.

The battlefield has now tilted:

Former Russian president and Putin's right-hand man Dmitry Medvedev, speaking about the updated nuke policy, said: "The use of the Alliance missiles in this way can now be qualified as an attack by the bloc countries on Russia.

"In this case, the right arises to launch a retaliatory strike with weapons of mass destruction on Kyiv and the main NATO facilities, wherever they are. 

"And this is already World War Three."

Putin had already said today’s kind of action would be considered a declaration of war against Russia by those countries involved. Now he has said with his regions of Russia’s nuclear doctrine that such a declaration may bear a nuclear response—a level of retaliation not quite so clearly allowed by earlier policy, which made it less likely that Putin would actually go nuclear as he has threatened to do throughout his invasion. It’s probably still saber-rattling, but a path has been cleared for actual nuclear retaliation. So, the risk is more real.

You can feel the ground shake in Europe’s response

Yesterday’s and today’s actions shook the ground throughout Europe. Europeans were quick to recognize and respond to the rise in risk, though their governments were in favor of Biden’s change and had even pushed for the change in policy, which is matched by changes in their policy. In fact, they anticipated it.

It puts into play Britain's Storm Shadow and France's SCALP missiles - ramping up pressure for Ukraine's other Western allies to follow the US lead.

The Russian TV voices of irrationality were, of course, free to carry things further, as they always have:

Andrey Gurulev, reservist Russian army general, MP and pro-Putin TV propagandist, warned of a full-scale nuclear strike on Britain.

“There are individual targets that can be hit with….demonstrative warning strikes,” he said.

“The first candidate to get a nuclear bludgeon….is the UK.”

… along with the usual intense saber-rattling by other Russian warmongers (yes, they have theirs, too) shooting their mouths off:

He also declared "if anyone has the urge to launch ATACMS, SCALP,  Storm Shadow missiles….there will be essentially nothing left of America trying to pull us into escalation…." [Well, they just did.]

Putin's puppet Vasily Nebenzya told the Security Council the use of Western missiles in Russia amounted to "suicidal strikes".

While that launch just happened, I remain completely certain America is not (yet) going to be turned into nuclear dust, nor likely even any Ukrainian city yet (though the latter is not something I’m sure of). I’m sure some heavy Russian response will be forthcoming inside of Ukraine, maybe even a tactical (bunker-busting) nuke, but I doubt Putin is foolish enough to escalate this into actual WW3 with Europe and all its allies just yet. He has to be afraid of the huge cost, too.

Nevertheless, Europe is now girding itself for the possibility of a nuclear war down the road in the ways we did at the peak of the Cold War with the USSR:

Nordic neighbours release new advice on surviving war …

On Monday, millions of Swedes will start receiving copies of a pamphlet advising the population how to prepare and cope in the event of war or another unexpected crisis.

Neighbouring Finland has also just published its own fresh advice online on “preparing for incidents and crises”.

And Norwegians have also recently received a pamphlet urging them to be prepared to manage on their own for a week in the event of extreme weather, war and other threats….

Included in the lists of items to be kept at home are long-life foods such as tins of beans, energy bars and pasta, and medicines including iodine tablets in case of a nuclear accident….

For Swedes, the idea of a civil emergency booklet is nothing new. The first edition of “If War Comes” was produced during World War Two and it was updated during the Cold War.

But one message has been moved up from the middle of the booklet: “If Sweden is attacked by another country, we will never give up. All information to the effect that resistance is to cease is false….”

“From the Finnish perspective, this is a bit strange,” according to Ilmari Kaihko, associate professor of war studies at the Swedish Defence University. “ [Finland] never forgot that war is a possibility, whereas in Sweden, people had to be shaken up a bit to understand that this can actually happen," says Kaihko, who's from Finland….

Nobody doubt things could escalate quickly at this point toward European soil. The Swedish pamphlet also states,

The global security situation increases the risks that nuclear weapons could be used. In the event of an attack with nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, take cover in the same way as in an air attack…. Shelter provides the best protection. After a couple of days, the radiation has decreased significantly.

So, we are back to the days of “duck and cover.”

These nordic nations are also engaged with the US and other NATO allies in massive arctic exercises right now, intended to show Russia how seriously they can work together. That, too, is in the news headlines below.

As European nations prepare now for the greater possibility of nuclear war, so does Russia, apparently believing it may soon be pressed to follow though with its threats by actually starting one. (After all, Putin is the only one in this conflict constantly threatening to escalate it to the nuclear level.)

While some squawking heads on Russian television threaten “WW3 by Christmas,” another story in today’s following headlines shows how Putin is building portable nuclear bomb shelters. Britons, the squawking heads suggest, should be putting Christmas decorations in their own nuclear shelters in order to be ready for Russia’s bright Red response, wrapped up in time for the season.

Other talking heads closer to home, convey somewhat similar responses:

President-Elect Donald Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jnr, who suggested that those behind the move to approve Ukraine’s use of the missiles wanted to “make sure they got World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives”…

Those in favour of the move have noted that the Kremlin and its mouthpieces in the state-controlled media and academia had threatened nuclear war every time the West had stepped up its support for Ukraine, including when it provided tanks, fighter jets and other sophisticated weapon systems.

However, Markov, currently the Director General of Russia's Institute for Political Studies, was convinced the move was different as it would mean that Western militaries would be directly involved in the conflict for the first time - Ukraine would require their assistance to use the precision guided missile systems.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4, he said: “My reaction [to the White House’s decision] was awful, I couldn't sleep well because I am just afraid nuclear war is coming.

“This decision of United States, Great Britain and France is not a step towards nuclear war it is a big jump to nuclear war, nuclear catastrophe.

I think the decision is a ground changer that puts us at the start of a path directly toward world war. I’m not saying we will go the distance to get there, but that is the road we are now on. Before, we were skirting around it. Putin made his real red line pretty clear when he said awhile back this very act would be treated as a declaration of war by the West. That is a hard position to sit still on once you’ve said it to all your nation’s leaders and citizens.

Germany, Russia’s historic arch enemy, has also changed course in a ground-tilting manner from Putin’s perspective:

GERMANY'S World War Three preparation plans have been revealed in a 1,000-page secret document dubbed "Operation Deutschland…."

Germany is ramping up its national security as fears loom that Vladimir Putin's bloody war in Ukraine may develop into a worldwide inferno.

In recent weeks North Korea has sent thousands of troops to support Mad Vlad and on Tuesday embattled Kyiv unleashed its first long-range missile into Russia.

Fears of war spilling over the national borders has now been sparked, with Germany taking after the Nordic countries in ramping up precautionary measures.

German armed forces have begun implementing "Operation Deutschland", which has been agreed amongst politicians and contains a chilling 1,000-page strategy plan.

The plan includes moves business should now make in case a broader war breaks out, such as hiring 5% more employees than they now need so that, as current employees get called into action, businesses can continue to operate. They now are entering a time of planned redundancy to have some immediate wartime flexibility, should today’s actions bring the conflict into their borders or call their people to defend allies inside allied borders.

It was also suggested that Berlin was preparing to move 200,000 vehicles as well as the 800,000 NATO troops across its territory if the situation with Russia turned to all-out war.

It seems many nations are now rapidly putting themselves on a world-war footing, further evidence the ground just shifted. Since Putin began his invasion, two nordic nations (Sweden and Finland), which had long been neutral, have joined NATO as very active members and are rapidly arming up. They are now distributing to their citizens plans on how to best survive a European or global war.

The real red risk

Many who read here will say the risk of nuclear war was foolish from the start even if it was small; but, to be fair and realistic, the risk of letting nuclear nations like North Korea and Russia bully their way into invading other lands with impunity is far more real and also extremely costly. So, the US, Europe and other allies are engaged in an effort to make the cost of Putin’s invasion as high as possible and to diminish its success as much as possible without creating real risk of nuclear war in hope of deterring any ambitions of further adventures of this kind in other former Soviet satellites. Now, however, that risk balance has shifted.

To this point, I’ve felt comfortable that Western leaders were not actually crossing the red line of anyone but Russian warmongers (which populate Russian TV), and obviously they didn’t. That is a proven fact of history because nothing nuclear has happened in all these years. You can talk all you want about what the risk was, but the FACT is that none of that triggered a nuclear war. We were getting very close, but not there.

Now, I’m less comfortable, as we are on a razor-thin edge. Moderately longer-range conventional US missiles used inside of Russia, after Putin has already said that will be treated as a declaration of war against Russia by the West, changes everything now that it has happened. Still, I think it is highly unlikely Putin will start a war with the West by going straight to nuclear. That would be beyond all-out retarded on his part, and he has long shown himself to be patient and deliberate man.

While I still think there is little chance (yet) that Russia will use nukes on Europe, he might use a tactical nuke on the dam in Kershon or take some other extreme but less provable attack on European structures, such as may have happened with those communication cables that were just severed in Northern Europe, though European leaders are only guessing at this point that the act was even sabotage. Putin has many options before going all the way by aiming for the end of the world.

But Biden has now turned a corner onto a path that easily can lead directly into World War III. Yesterday’s decision by Biden and today’s action by Ukraine pressure Putin to make a far graver response than we’ve seen so far in order to validate his words that this act would be treated as a declaration of war. If not, the meaningfulness of his words will evaporate; so, what will he evaporate, instead? We may soon find out.

(Articles for the above quotes can be found in today’s and yesterday’s headlines.)

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