Some Things are Just so Predictable
Sharing shining nuggets of intended enlightenment on Goldseek Radio
For my editorial today, please enjoy (I hope) my recent interview on Goldseek Radio because the elements I discussed with passion earlier this week with Chris Waltzek are confirmed all over the news today. That interview, recorded back on Monday, is exactly what I’d write as an editorial based on today’s news. So here’s the editorial in video format:
Goldseek Radio Nugget With David Haggith: Gold's Outlook In Economic Uncertainty - Dollar To Rise, Inflation Rising, "No Pivot."
To summarize the connections with today’s news…
… we just got a report in the headlines below that those unemployment rates discussed in the interview took a major hit in the wrong direction for the Fed today with an initial jobless claims report that showed a HUGE decline in claims that matches up to the bizarre job situation back in 2022; but, otherwise, you have to go all the way back to the 1960s to find new jobless claims running this low! It is a 54-year low in jobless claims, outside the anomaly of the Covid lockdowns! It was such a plunge in jobless claims that even Zero Hedge had to admit today,
And just like that Goldilocks dream of a soft-landing was destroyed. How does The Fed justify rate-cuts when the labor market is the 'best' in over 50 years?
Exactly! The answer is that the Fed doesn’t justify and cannot justify rate cuts with this news. When you listen to the interview, you’ll see this news supports the comments I made about unemployment giving NO room for the Fed to cut rates. I’ve said for, at least, two years, this bizarre labor market will not give slack to the Fed to start cutting rates until the economy crashes. The strangely broken labor gauge will hold the Fed in the fight until the Fed drives us deep into recession and big things break.
On top of that, we have a headline showing that, even with labor market’s strong push against the Fed’s goals of softening employment, the goldilocks economy is evaporating. The Philly Fed confirms what the New York Fed showed and I commented on Tuesday — another month of manufacturing recession firmly in the bag.
I also predicted in the interview that the dollar would be rising, and today’s news confirms that the dollar is headed for closing this week out solidly as the third week in a row of rising dollar value on the DXY. (I made that statement on Jan. 15.)
The news also reports that oil is back to rising, as I’ve been saying we could expect, and it is happening due to the reasons I’ve given for expecting that—the Houthi war around the Red Sea, which also heated up more today, as I’ve been saying we could certainly expect.
Most interesting, in light of the predictions I’ve been making, another story in the news reports that the Red Sea conflict has already caused GREATER supply-chain damage than the shipping world experienced during the Covid lockdowns. That surprises even me, if it is fully accurate, because it exceeds even the level of inflation-causing, supply-chain damage I had anticipated. We’ve rocketed right past the damage I predicted to a level that is even worse according to today’s article; but, hey, this IS the “Year of Chaos.”
Speaking of my overall theme for the year, one analyst predicts this is going to be a “turbulent year for stocks.” Another way you could say that is a “chaotic year” for stocks. My “Year of Chaos” also got some support from another article posted below where a panel CBS reporters made their own predictions of a major black swan event becoming highly likely due to “a ton of chaos” in 2024. (It was a show I hadn’t seen earlier but just came across today.)
And if you want to support writing that gives the straight scoop that is hard to find elsewhere with a track record of accurately predicting the trends that are going to be hitting you in the months ahead without exaggeration or false alarms, please become a subscriber (maybe even a paid subscriber):
(Related headlines all appear in boldface on the following list of news links:)