Tariff Wins and Losses in Action
In today's news we see the actual pros and cons of tariffs playing out in the American economy.
As the stock market teeters on collapse, we got an example today of tariffs doing their intended good for the US and wreaking their destruction.
On the positive side, Apple announced it will be committing half a trillion dollars toward building production facilities inside the US, largely to offset tariff risks. They estimated this will create 20,000 new jobs, which is enough offset 9% of the jobs slated to be stripped away by all the government firings. These new are high-tech jobs, of course, manufacturing AI servers. So, Apple’s decision will put major AI development and manufacturing in new factories inside the US borders.
The investment will occur over the course of four years and will include an AI server factory in Texas and a “supplier” academy in Michigan.
Earlier this month, Trump imposed a 10% US levy on Chinese imports, where Apple manufactures most of its iPhones, iPads, Macs, and other products. In a tit-for-tat effort, Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs on US goods shortly after.
There is a downside, of course, and that is the retaliatory tariffs mean fewer other things will be manufactured in the US for export to China, and the positives will take a few years to actually materialize; but on the upside, CEO Tim Cook said,
We are bullish on the future of American innovation, and we're proud to build on our long-standing US investments with this $500 billion commitment to our country's future. We'll keep working with people and companies across this country to help write an extraordinary new chapter in the history of American innovation.
Tariff troubles
Those same tariffs were said to be pushing the stock market over the edge on which it was precariously perched when the Dow dropped ~1200 points in two days from which it failed to recover any today. I covered the significance of those two days in my last Deeper Dive, and today’s manufacturing news adds solid support to that analysis about the meaning of those moves.
This morning has seen two disappointing signals for US growth as The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index dropped to 0.03 (thanks to a plunge in Personal Consumption & Housing.…
and The Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey clumped into contraction (from its highest level since Oct 2021), dramatically worse than expected, as tariff fears loom large for many. The general business activity index tumbled 22 points to -8.3
That puts the survey solidly in recession territory, and the main reason respondents gave for their concern was fear of the damages tariffs will do or are doing to their businesses. This was the survey’s largest month-on-month decline since the Covid lockdowns hit in the last year of Trump’s first term. Having finally risen from recessionary territory in its January report, the survey fell right back into recession in its February report:
The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 21 points to -9.1. Other measures of manufacturing activity also declined this month.
And, this was not just moves in sentiment about the outlook:
The new orders index fell 11 points to -3.5, and the capacity utilization index slid 14 points to -8.7….
In fact across the entire spectrum, every indicator is a disastrous stagflationary signal:
Input costs also ramped up as inflationary pressures continue to build on the producer side of the economy. Costs of raw materials, in fact, hit a multi-year high; and this is before tariffs.
The outlook “uncertainty” index rose from zero to 29.2 due to all the chaos in how major economic changes are being decreed with surprise shock-and-awe. Respondents gave the following feedback:
Tariff threats and uncertainty are extremely disruptive.
With some of the new Buy America changes and tariffs incoming, we are looking at closing the business.
The back-and-forth tariff talk has been very stressful, but it has not been disruptive so far.
It is very hard to plan. Interest rates? Tariffs? Wow.
I'm very worried about the possible tariffs affecting some of our material costs, which we will have no choice but to pass along to our customers. This is a terrible policy decision and hopefully will not be very long lived.
The new tariffs will have a big impact on the demand for our products.
The Trump tariff situation is creating uncertainty about our future material costs later this year.
So, while Apple is making big pro-US changes, many other businesses are seeing red.
Some businesses, of course, are expected to directly benefit while others falter. Steel smelting and steel components manufacturing should gain from the tariffs choking out foreign competition. Those who use lots of steel, however, such as building contractors or auto manufacturers, are expected to do worse because their costs will rise as they shift toward using more expensive US steel.
Economania (national & global economic collapse plus market news)
Dow drops 700 points for worst day of 2025 so far on new fears about economic growth
Tariff Scare Slams Texas Manufacturing Survey Down Most Since COVID Lockdowns
Apple Goes MAGA: $500 Billion Investment Plan In America, 20,000 New Jobs
Money Matters (monetary policy, metals, cryptos, currency wars & going cashless)
Whose Gold, if anyone’s, Is in Ft. Knox
Wars & Rumors of War, Revolts, Hacks & Cyberattacks + AI threats
Rubio: Zelensky Made Agreement, Then Went Out and LIED About it; Now Faces Cut-off of Starlink Comms
US could cut Ukraine's access to STARLINK internet services over minerals
Trump-Putin summit preparations are underway, Russia says
True Leadership: Zelensky says he's 'ready to step down' as Ukraine president on one condition
Political Pandemonium & Social Senescence (socio-political issues & events)
Federal agency bosses tell workers to ignore Musk's demands for proof of accomplishments
FDA Begins to Rescind Firings, Calls Some Employees Back to Work
FBI Nominee Kash Patel Warned Elon Musk Is Becoming "One Ginormous Trust"
USAID Endgame: Trump Firing 2,000 Employees, Putting Most Others On Leave
Canadians cancel US travel en masse as trade war escalates
After 150 Years of Friendship, the U.S. and Canada Come to
"Governor" Trudeau Mocks Trump After Canada's Win Over US
Donald Trump has ruptured the Canada-U.S. relationship. To what end? And what comes next?
Trump Names Dan Bongino As Deputy Director Of The FBI
Is the 'DOGE dividend' a dream proposal or dangerous fantasy?
MUST WATCH: Trump Deputy Chief of Staff Blasts Media Propagandists to their Faces
Trump ousts Joint Chiefs chairman, other leaders in major Pentagon shake-up
A Pox Upon Us (the plagues, pandemics & health police of the 2020s)
Infamous Dr. Deborah Birx Makes Two Shocking COVID Admissions
Alarm as bird flu now ‘endemic in cows’
Off-the-Beat News & Just Plain Offbeat News
US Air Force pilot reveals encounter with UFO during secret mission over California
Pope Francis is in critical condition after a long respiratory crisis, requiring oxygen at high flow
Doomer Humor
Damn, David-yer politics are purty much choking out yer formerly-pertinent economic observations.
I'm no Trumptard, cautioned my Trumpian-minded wife from day 1 that nobody gets into the billionaire club unless compromised somehow.
Having a difficult time finishing your articles the past several weeks.
PLEASE-knock off the TDS crap and just write your analysis like you so capably used to do.