The Daily Doom

The Daily Doom

THE DEEPER DIVE: "Hottest Economy Ever" Proven to be a Lie All Along!

Even government reports can no longer help but show the economy was SNUFFED out over the course of 2025; yet, the overt lies from the White House continue to claim we are doing fantastic!

David Haggith's avatar
David Haggith
Mar 09, 2026
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Of course, the economy from hell is hot! It is burning up in a conflagration of inflation and now being bombed by an expensive oil-soaked war.

We’ve just received rock-solid proof that “the hottest economy ever” was the biggest lie ever for the very reasons I was claiming all of last year while the mainstream media kept buying and reselling the Trump administration’s “hot” narrative. Only this week, it was the government that issued revised reports about how bad “the hottest economy ever” really was.

It was so bad that, even though Trump fired the department head who was putting out barely bad reports in order to hire someone who would put out better reports because he wasn’t “out to get” Trump, the department has now revised all of those past reports to make them a whole lot worse than they already were—in some months even turning positive numbers negative.

If you’ve been around here a little while, you know that last summer, when Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for making him look bad, I said repeatedly that, “Yes, she deserved to be fired for putting out lying reports (hence my renaming of her department the “Bureau of Lying Statistics”), but not because her reports made the president look bad. She deserved to be fired because, deteriorating in both quality and their economic picture as those reports had become, they were not nearly as bad as reality.

She should have been fired for making the government look better than it deserved to look because that has been the mission of the BLS for years, going back long before Trump, and it had only gotten worse over the summer with all the DOGE firings that took down its statistic-gathering-and-sorting powers even more. (Remember DOGE, which was going to sink the size of government, which is now actually more expensive and inept than ever?)

Now, even the government is no longer able to maintain the lie that papered over how badly the economy was deteriorating throughout the first year of Trump 2.0. Before we get into the revised jobs reports, let’s also remember that fourth-quarter GDP growth plummeted in the latest report. If we were going to say it like Trump would say it, we’d say, “Plummeted like never before! No one has ever seen a plummet like this before. People are telling me it was the biggest ever!” And, while that is overstated on the face of it, it is not overstated by much if one considers the latest GDP report with the same cold, glass eye that I gave to the government’s job reports late last summer.

Trump’s trade war was an economic wrecking ball

I said last spring it would be. Now we know that it was. First, the latest GDP report would have been SO much worse if it had actually subtracted REAL inflation out of the GDP numbers. Just as I was constantly saying the government was over-reporting new jobs—and we learned this week, as I’ll describe below, what a fact that was—I was also saying all of last year that it was under-reporting inflation. All to make the economy appear to be strong. Subtract out true inflation, and the plunge in GDP, while not the worst ever, would have been shocking. Nevertheless, GDP still came in looking quite bad in the latest report, even though the truth is worse.

Now to the jobs reports to see how bad last year really was because falling jobs certainly indicate a failing economy, which would back my claims about GDP. We see now the great extent to which the Trump administration was covering up a crushing blow to employment. Remember, the department putting out the latest jobs report is the one now being run by the guy who was hired to issue much-better-sounding reports than his terminated predecessor.

The headline from The New York Times is “Big Revisions Are a Reason to Question Jobs Numbers”

If you click to the article, you may notice that I chopped off the last part of the actual headline that adds that we should still not dismiss the job numbers entirely since they are government numbers. While the usual financial writers who miss everything that matters want you to keep trying to maintain, at least, some respect of the government numbers, the numbers have been too fraudulent to merit any respect. They are, however, certainly right in FINALLY admitting, as I have been insisting for many months, that the reports from the Trump administration were burying the truth about how badly the economy was falling apart under the Trump Tariffs.

First, the easy part—the part that doesn’t look back at how bad the past year was but just looks at how bad the start of this year is:

The U.S. economy lost jobs in February, a month marred by severe winter weather and a strike at a major health-care provider, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 for the month, compared with the estimate for 50,000 and below the downwardly revised January total of 126,000. February marked the third time in the past five months that payrolls declined, following a sharp revision showing a drop of 17,000 in December.

Forget about the notion that it was due to “severe weather.” The department has always adjusted its reports in ways that are beneficial to the government for severe weather. I have laughed here many times at how one year, the Obama Administration played this game. (The problem doesn’t change with administrations because each year the labor bureau tailors its many jobs reports to make the incumbent administration, whichever group it is, look as good as it can. They know how to keep their jobs: they are presidential boot lickers.)

During the Obama years, the bureau adjusted the raw number of new jobs for the month of December up by 500,000 (yes, half a million for one month—from a deeply negative number to a healthy positive number!) because it was “unseasonably cold” that December. Supposedly, the cold caused a lot of construction jobs to stall out! (Of course it did! Don’t construction jobs do that every December, so why the need for a seasonal adjustment? That is what the season does. For some reason they felt the need to report that, had the weather been warmer, there would have been more jobs than there actually were. Never mind that it wasn’t warmer and there weren’t more jobs. I guess they are the Department of What Could Have Been.)

But here is the outrageous part: The very next year the bureau adjusted its December numbers up again by 500,000 (from a deep negative to a positive) because it was “unseasonably warm” that December, causing no one to go shopping for heavy winter clothing, thus reducing the hiring during the holiday season below what it would have normally been. (But, then, wouldn’t unseasonable warmth have merited adjusting the construction jobs lower based on the logic of the previous year? Since it was warmer than usual, there were likely more construction jobs than usual due to the weather. Why factor the jobs in only one direction when the temperature goes outside the norm in either direction?)

The BLS just uses whatever argument it can find from the weather to adjust numbers up. Unseasonable cold means we need to find an argument for why we should adjust the numbers up to what we imagine they would have been with normal December weather. Unseasonable warmth means we still need to find an argument for why we should adjust the numbers up to what we imagine they would have been with normal weather. “Oh, I know. (hand waving) Pick me! Pick me! Last year it was construction. This year it was retail hiring.”

This is slipper banana-republic stuff. How about we stop adjusting jobs for weather altogether and just report what they actually were with the weather we actually had?! Just add a side note with an asterisk that they might have been better or worse if the weather had been different if you feel you have to subtract extreme variation in winter weather out of the economic picture, even though weather is always part of it.)

So, forget about the mainstream media’s comment in the headline above that you should not dismiss the numbers altogether. That is because the liberal press doesn't want you to give up entirely on the government departments they love to parrot. Focus on the fact that the real numbers are now so bad that the reports cannot doctor the truth away. Notice that this report was not a decline in new jobs added, as most reports have been. It was a net-NEGATIVE number of jobs lost. On net, there were zero new jobs added—just 92,000 lost.

Now let’s look at how bad jobs, AS REPORTED, have been all of last year, too:

Look at 2025 compared to all the Biden years (which were nothing to brag about if reality-based numbers had been given). You can see why Trump fired the head of the BLS last summer when you see how the numbers fell off as soon as he took office. They were still positive, though, because the initial fall-off was just due to the long downtrend you see through the spectacular Biden years of diminishing returns on “Build Back Better,” a.k.a. “Bidenomics.” We puttered along for three months at the end of those diminishing returns during the start of Trump’s second term. Then the tariffs hit, and the economy started busting up badly. You can see how it was bounding off the rocky bottom.

In Trump’s view, clearly, the head of the BLS had to be fired since she was now reporting numbers that looked that bad. However, as you see, the numbers didn’t get any better after the firing. Remember it was Trump who stated outright that his reason for firing her was that she was making him look bad by reporting fake low job numbers. This is not just me claiming Trump was trying to replace her with someone who would report better numbers. Trump spelled that out for everyone.

It didn’t work.

The job members kept slogging around because you couldn’t put enough lipstick on that pig to make her look anything but horrendous.

Applying the lipstick

But, now, let’s remember that those brutal porcine numbers were the high numbers—the numbers before the bad news came in this past week (which was just finally getting truthful. In the following graph, you can see that all revisions for Trump’s first year of his second term and half of Biden’s term were steeply downward because that is how overinflated the original reported numbers had been:

New York Times

That shows a torrent of constant downward REVISIONS through the last half of Biden’s term and all of Trump’s second term. That is how overoptimistic ALL of the original reports were. With those revisions factored in, almost every job report over the last two years WOULD HAVE BEEN NEGATIVE!

Data revisions are a fact of life for the forecasters, investors and policymakers who follow the monthly twists and turns of the U.S. economy. But the scale of recent adjustments have given some of them pause. What, exactly, is the point of a monthly jobs report that can’t reliably distinguish a solid gain from an outright loss?

We will skip over the part where they make excuses as to why you should still pay attention to such reports. They are just plain rubbish. We are stuck with them, but we have to always try to extrapolate, as I do here every month, what the real numbers likely are based on the government fakes and whatever reports from private businesses and consumer anecdotes suggest we should adjust the government’s picture by.

It isn’t just the jobs numbers. Measures of inflation, consumer spending, home building and other aspects of the economy have seen large revisions, wild swings or other distortions and quirks.

My reason for existence it seems. I call this The Daily Doom because someone should reporting the truth about how bad things really are or likely are based on other factors that can be applied to the numbers they are showing us. So, I spent all of last year, laying out reasons that the real numbers were—as we are now finally seeing because they are too bad to hide—worse than reported. That often means standing pretty much alone.

So, absolutely, the head of the BLS deserved to be fired—NOT because she was making Trump look bad but, as I said back then, because she was doing what the BLS always does and making the incumbent look far better than he should. His labor reports should have all looked like that pig above, and it’s hard to imagine how any lipstick could make that pig look anything but worse. If anyone is paying attention to how much lipstick was being applied with a putty knife (based on that revisions chart) to try to make the pig look good, then you know how much your government will distort facts to try to make itself look good.

A few economists have come to question the longstanding consensus that U.S. government data is the “gold standard” globally.

Ya think? Obviously, their problem is that they don’t read The Daily Doom. They disregard it as being too caustic, too sarcastic, too close to conspiracy; but the truth now looks exactly like I have been writing since The Great Recession, when I started a blog by that name. If these economists had any objectivity and didn’t just kowtow to educational and government credentials, they would have recognized all along that the government data has not been the “gold standard” since … well about the time we went off the gold standard!

In the early eighties, the government started trying to revise away the recession and inflation of the 70s that began with a move from the gold standard and onto the petrodollar, which climaxed in an oil embargo by OPEC. They started changing how they calculate things because everyone was so sick of stagflation, which we are now fully back into, and sinking deeper into it due to the Trump’s War with Iran and the effective Persian Gulf Embargo being enforced by Iran. (I still haven’t come up with exactly the right name for the monstrosity of a war that is unfolding—maybe the Trump Iranium War (since it is ostensibly, in part, about uranium enrichment that the US has fought with Iran over for decades; but that is clearly only one wedge of the picture).

You can now see in those job revisions, if applied to the numbers in the first chart, that we have been in the “stealth recession” I have been claiming we are in since, at least, the middle of the Biden years—likely since the Covidcrash where the damage continued even after a big bounce in GDP hiring that naturally came when they turned the economic lights back on.

“I think that referring to [government reports] as the ‘gold standard’ is giving it way too much credibility,” said Steven Englander, an economist at Standard Chartered.

Waaaay too much!

The most prominent critic of the statistical agencies has been President Trump himself. After the big downward revisions last summer, he fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika McEntarfer, accusing her, without evidence, of rigging the numbers against him for political reasons.

Obviously, we can see now by the government’s own revisions that the truth ran the other way. McEntarfer was way off by being way too high, thinking perhaps that she was safeguarding her job. It didn’t work. Her job needed a lot more safeguarding because the king did not like seeing even a little bit of the truth leaching through her overrated numbers.

Ms. McEntarfer’s firing added to fears among Democrats that Mr. Trump would try to pressure the agency into producing more favorable estimates. But there is no evidence of that happening, either.

He clearly tried. It just didn’t work.

Current and former staffers say that the agency is using the same procedures as under past administrations, and that it would be impossible for the White House to interfere in its operations without detection.

And that is why it didn’t work. You can only massage the numbers with things like “seasonal adjustments” so much before the adjustments to the raw data becomes so obvious that everyone cries foul. The government has, for years, overstated the numbers as much as it can justify. Then it eventually comes through with revisions on past months when no one cares about those months anymore because they are long-since sewage under the bridge. (Perhaps they want to revise those past numbers down to reality because revising them down to what they should have been after those months are well back in the rearview mirror will make it more likely that current year-on-year comparisons will come out positive.)

Mr. Trump tried to replace Ms. McEntarfer with E.J. Antoni, a conservative economist with a history of social media posts that often appeared to distort economic statistics to support partisan positions. But the president withdrew the nomination after bipartisan backlash, and named a more traditional candidate, Brett Matsumoto, to lead the agency. Mr. Matsumoto, who must still be confirmed by the Senate, has been widely praised by economists, including former B.L.S. commissioners under presidents of both political parties.

Yada, yada, yada. Likely praised because he would not so overstate the numbers beyond belief (the numbers already being way beyond belief to anyone with an honest, non-partisan critical glass eye anyway). But that just makes him the same ol’ status-quo shill.

In the interim, the agency has been led by its deputy commissioner, William J. Wiatrowski, a respected civil servant who has worked there for more than four decades.

Also, the same ol’ status-quo shill, well accustomed to overstating the numbers in initial reports with vainglorious assumptions that massage them via generally positive adjustments, only to revise them down in annual revisions when few are looking. Only when the revisions become so enormous that they break headlines, do they finally get some attention, and then everyone is told, as even in the article I’m quoting, to go back to sleep because you cannot expect perfection.

“You should still trust B.L.S. data,” Ms. McEntarfer wrote in a social media post last month.

You should still trust the status quo because, while it is way, way off, it is not as far off as Trump wants it to be and needs it to be in order to keep his dimwitted Tariff Wars from looking like the massive economic face plant that they are.

Back to the wrecking ball

Still, just because the data isn’t politically biased doesn’t mean it is reliable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics now says employers added just 116,000 jobs in 2025, 80 percent fewer than its initial estimate of 584,000. That followed a downward revision a year earlier that was nearly as large.

That’s the status quo—borderline truth but only via backward downward revisions to strip the past back down to the truth … at least enough to make the present look like an improvement. The data “isn’t politically biased” only in the sense that these departments do the same magic for administrations of either color as each admin puts in its own people at the top to make sure they do the right magic and as the people at the bottom know how to keep their jobs by rearranging the mirrors and adding smoke as needed. It’s built into their programmed methodology. The data is always biased to make the incumbent administration look better than it should.

Think about it: If the latest revisions did manage to hit the truth, then all year long we added only 116,000 jobs! It takes more than that many every month just to keep up with population growth as it feeds into the pool of working-age adults—about 35,000 more than that annual total, but every month. So, the population is growing far faster than jobs are keeping up.

No wonder things feel tighter than the government lets on as it keeps complaining that this is the “least appreciated expansion in history.” No wonder the “expansion” isn’t appreciated at all. What expansion? In terms of jobs, the economy has been expanding far slower than the population for some time now. In fact, we now know the economy has been shrinking.

And that is now the best-case scenario! (The revised government case.)

The policymakers and forecasters who follow the data most closely had plenty of warning that the revisions were coming.

They certainly did if they have been reading The Daily Doom. It’s only doom, Folks, because someone has to correct the financial reporting, and mere correction nearly always points downward from the swill they are feeding you. This week, buried deeply amid the swirl and flash of warfare/warfire, the truth eaked out—barely, but there it is.

Economists are optimistic that the big revisions are at least partly the result of temporary factors and that the data will become more reliable going forward.

Well, that’s stupid! It’s temporary like inflation was “transitory.” How are the data going to get better with the Iran war jacking the price of oil through the roof and raising the government debt astronomically in the future because, right now, the government is mostly using stockpiled weapons. The cost of replacing all those weapons will be coming quickly, and it will be massive!

The very next words in this beguiling report on how bad the numbers were attempt to explain by the most bizarre logic why the data will finally start to improve:

The Covid-19 pandemic led to waves of business openings and closures, which are difficult for the government to track in real time, and upended the seasonal patterns that statisticians try to account for in their estimates.

In other words, the adjustments for extra cold and extra warm winters didn’t work as well as the used to because things were SO messed up.

The surge in immigration in the early years of the Biden administration, and the sharp decline later in his term and under Mr. Trump, have broken models that were built for much more gradual demographic shifts.

And why would the numbers be getting better, in that case, when the numbers are already still damaged from the ill-fated, ill-regarded Covid lockdowns? How, now that we have the Tariff Troubles pounding down on the numbers and messing them up with endless chaos for over a year with more of that for years to come are the numbers going to get better? How is the chaos from belated but overall brutal immigration enforcement going to make them more reliable as new immigration situations continue to no longer work with the old economic numbers? And now, with the Iran war costs and oil blockade and the wartime devastation to oil production and travel adding in, HOW ON EARTH ARE THE NUMBERS OPTIMISTICALLY GOING TO BECOME MORE RELIABLE IN THE FUTURE?

Folks, this kind of writing is so bizarrely devoid of thought that it is almost impossible to fathom how college-graduated economists can be this truly empty! That is why you have The Daily Doom spell it out as bad as it is because you are CLEARLY NEVER GOING TO GET THE TRUTH OUT OF THESE GUYS!

The mainstream press doesn’t want to hear anything I have to say. I once got time on Russian television and in print on RT, but that was because they were more than glad to report how bad things really are in the US, once you scrape all the lipstick off the pig. That ended, when I chose to quit because I won’t in any way do anything that helps Putin look good for all the equally bad chaos he is bringing into the world by starting wars on bases that are no better than the ones the US uses for all its regime-change or land-grab or oil-grab wars.

Imperial Putin is no less dangerous than Tyrannical Trump. But let’s get back to the numbers because that was just my explanation for why I am a man without a land in terms of anyone who wants to publish what I’m saying. So, I’m stuck with self-publishing with links from the few alternative websites that will carry what I write. Russia will publish it because it makes the US look as bad as it truly looks, but the mainstream press and television will have nothing to do with it. I call it The Daily Doom because it is not news the average US citizen wants to hear either, but it’s the truth! Tough truth is a tough sell. Not everyone can handle the truth. Lipstick is easier to sell.

“We’re getting the aftershocks of the Covid experience and how that restructured the economy,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan. “It’s possible that normalcy will return and uncertainty will dissipate.”

It is ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE that normalcy will return now that tariffs are piling on enormous inflation that has been pricing through at the speed of sludge, but it will price through, and retailers have been promising us it is coming in 2026. With war now hugely amplifying the inflationary pressure because oil impacts the price of EVERYTHING it will price through a lot faster … unless Trump chickens out and finds a way to claim he achieved his directives, even though he has said regime-change was a primary directive.

There is no hope that our ALWAYS understated official inflation figures will ever capture how truly bad the inflation becomes because no one in government wants you to see that. (Think of how much more Social Security pensions would cost the government if COLAs were real and how much more the government’s payroll costs would rise if COLAs were real.)

No, that is not going to happen.

Taking the red pill

There is no difference for the economy and war and corruption v truth in government between red and blue parties. When I talk taking the red pill versus the blue pill, I’m certainly not talking about preferring one party over another. The Daily Doom is the red pill. (Save the blue pill for evenings before bed.) You need publications like this one to try to dive down to find the truth, but it’s a murky occupation and ill-paying in a world where a third of all readers want only to hear good things about Trump and another third only to hear things that support Dems, never mind that both parties have alternated who is in charge for decades; and the US looks worse with every changeover.

Republicans claim they will work to make America great again, having done nothing but undermine it for decades with their massive spending on wars America doesn’t need to be in and with economic bailouts and tax structures that clearly have served the rich while diminishing the middle class and with being driven by big corporate money. Democrats run on how they will build it back better when they have done nothing but tear it apart for decades with reckless approaches to pressurized immigration, welfare spending that has piled on massive debt, endless efforts to turn people against each other by stoking divisive feelings of prejudice and with being driven by big corporate money.

No. It’s not going to happen. The statistics are not going to improve in quality; AND, IF THEY DID IMPROVE IN QUALITY, THAT WOULD ONLY MEAN THE GOVERNMENT WOULD HAVE TO REPORT FAR WORSE NUMBERS! The reports would have to become like the kinds of reports you read here—the very stuff the government doesn’t want you to think about; yet it keeps proving true, as it has again with the latest revisions.

But economists do have concerns about the long-term health of the statistical system, which has been strained by years of shrinking budgets, staff turnover and declining response rates to the surveys that still form the backbone of much of its data collection.

Those problems predate the Trump administration but have grown worse during it.

That much is truth that is finally being written because it cannot be avoided. Yet, the bigger truth is that the problem is incumbency bias—support of whomever is in power—support of the status quo—and it is being written in the article quoted, which gives an overall presentation that tries to anesthetize you back to sleep—back into the poppy-field dreams of believing it will all get better now. It will all be better when you wake up because your party is in control. No. Instead, wake to realize how bad it really is. Take the red pill—The Daily Doom—to see reality.

The agencies lost hundreds of veteran employees to voluntary buyout and early retirement programs early in Mr. Trump’s term, and attrition continued after Ms. McEntarfer’s firing. Senior roles at the Bureau of Labor Statistics have been vacant for months, and staffing shortages lower in the ranks have forced the agency to limit some data collection.

That does not equal it’s going to get better. That equals the already under-reporting, status-quo, government workers are more overworked and will be more under-reporting than ever. They will not be digging harder into the truth. They will be trying to save what is left of their jobs by not making the emperor any angrier than he already is with all the bad stuff they would be coming up with if they reported the truth. The problem is they cannot figure out how to hide it any longer because we are that far down into the collapse!

The six-week government shutdown last fall further disrupted data collection and led agencies to delay or cancel dozens of data releases.

I pounded that message out on my news beat all along. Yet for every new paid subscriber (whom I am thankful for), I lose (like clockwork) another paid subscriber who is either tired of my harping or so badly decimated by the bad economy he or she cannot afford $9 a month to support my attempts at truth-mongering. Mostly, I think it is people who cannot handle the truth once their own party is placed in power so their party suddenly starts getting all the same anti-status-quo criticism from me that I was giving to the last party. At least, I can be thankful that the new people who join in supporting the site are almost keeping up with those who run away, making for minimal attrition. So, the war of attrition soldiers on here at The Daily Doom.

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Statistical experts, including many inside the agencies, have argued for years that the system must rely less on surveys and more on data from the private sector

Exactly as I have been saying. If we are going to see the stealth recession that I started to claim we had entered during the Biden years, then we are going to have to turn to non-government data AND apply some common-sense evaluations based on the anecdotal evidence we hear from businesses and consumers.

It’s not hard to understand why people would get tired of a constant slog of news that is worse than the already-bad news they are getting daily, only because the already-bad news isn’t as bad as the truth. I really do get that. I feel the same way. I feel like I would love to switch to writing about positive things like “Hope for Hard Times” where I either focus on spiritual truths or good stories amid all the bad, but I find it hard to do that. Instead of straining out the gnats of bad news that float in the delicious soup of good news, publishing the truly uplifting stories right now would be like trying to scoop out the drop of good soup that is resting on top of a bowl of dead gnats and serve it up as a meal.

So, I understand that people may be turning away as paid subscribers at about the rate new paid subscribers arrive because they just don’t want to hear so much bad news. It can weigh one down. It can feel oppressive, especially when the forces that are grinding down on us are way bigger than what any of us can do anything about. Still, I keep coming back to (for myself) the fact that I’d rather see the battlefield—gray, smoking and reeking of gunpowder and death as it is—than remain asleep in poppy fields by taking the blue pill every time I start to wake up.

I could focus on writing about the beautiful millennium that is supposed to come after Jesus returns, but there is a huge, chaotic battlefield to get through where human evil consumes itself (and maybe God consumes it all with Trump as his wrecking ball) before we get there. Plus, I’ve cultivated an audience based on economics that might, by-and-in-large not be interested in that diet either. So, I try to tread lightly there.

The spin factor

Now, back to the numbers, again, where the truth keeps looking bleaker, but that is just the way it is. No surprise here. This time it is all just affirmation of the long story I have been working to tell.

“There’s good reason to be concerned that the quality of our statistics is going to deteriorate,” said Karen Dynan, a Harvard economist who has been involved in several of those efforts. “Even before this administration, there was reason to be concerned.

We can certainly agree on that much.

With all of this truth just out in the latest revisions, the White House still cannot help but spin that, too. It was disgusting to watch the White House’s economic chief put on his smarmy smile as he told us why this is all good for us and how it proves this is the “best economy ever,” as his boss likes to say:

White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said the average payroll growth over the past several months has been in line with trend considering the White House’s efforts against illegal immigration. The economy has averaged fewer than 5,000 new jobs a month since Trump took office in January 2025.

That is in the toilet by anyone’s objective reading, so nothing to smile about. But, at least, we are now finally getting the numbers that prove we are in a stealth recession—stealth only because of how the government has been covering it up in government stastics and White House lies about jobs and inflation, and the lies continue as Hassett speaks:

“On average, it’s about what we expect to be seeing because immigration has gone down by so much that break-even unemployment is probably in the sort of 30,000 or 40,000 jobs a month range,” the National Economic Council director said on CNBC. “I think it’s consistent with everything that we’re seeing, which is that the economy is really strong.”

So, you see, as he flashes his slimy smirk of a smile, he tells you this is what we expect because the economy is really strong.

It is no wonder Trump keeps kicking the Fed chief in the butt to try to get him to goose the “strong economy!” Now we can even see from the numbers the government has to belligerently cough out that “strong economy” means stagflation—a stagnant or receding economy coupled with crippling inflation, and all they can do is try to convince you the “break-even unemployment is probably in the sort of 30,000 or 40,000 jobs a month range” because their immigration programs have chopped population growth back so much.

Just look at this guy as he tries to put a good face on it:

Image from the video in the article in the headlines below since the video could not be posted.

What a load of lies. At one point in the full interview recorded in the link below (which I couldn’t find on Youtube to post here), Hasset claims GDP is around 4% but would really be 7 if reported properly, while, without Trump, it would be down in the ones. (It IS down it the ones by the Trump government’s own report!)

“This economy is moving the fastest we’ve ever seen,” he claims with a sunbeam smile, as he tries to put you back to sleep in the poppy fields with a lullaby about how these numbers look exactly like what you would expect a thriving economy to look like and that the jobs numbers are only down because we are finally kicking all the illegal immigrants out (along with a few legal immigrants married to Americans). Plus we are realizing the benefits of AI productivity for the corporate owners. This is all just good news playing out! That’s the narrative. Keep believing that Pied Piper’s tune, and you’ll deserve to be one of the ones sleepwalking through Hamlin.

I don’t know how these guys can even sit around the same conference table together without poking each other’s their eyes out with their own noses. Hasset manages to pour his sweet maple syrup all over my gnat soup to try to make it taste better. (But, hey, the good news is that Canada will soon be ours, so we will have access to an abundance of cheaper maple syrup to help the gnats go down.)

This economy is moving the fastest we’ve ever seen with, say, about 4% growth this year…. Everybody’s going to be able to find a job that wants one.

—Kevin Hassett

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What does GDP really say about recession?

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