Trump Surrenders???
Is it TACO time? President Trump sounds like he is surrendering, following a phone call with Putin, who warned the war with Iran feels like "the end of the world is upon us."
It’s become an expression that “Trump Always Chickens Out” as the TACO King. Is he so soon chickening out from the war he just started? Markets swallowed his calming words today hook, line, and sinker. Following a phone call with Supreme Leader Putin, Trump sounded for all the world like he’s backpedaling all over the place in search of an offramp from his own war! And markets believed him so much they flip-flopped from death to resurrection.
Having achieved NONE of the objectives that the White House and Pentagon declared as possible goals for the war (always fluctuating from one to the other in “the weave”), Trump now sounds like a guy with his hand on the main circuit breaker, ready to shut down his entire war, which the commander and his team switched to calling an “operation” in order to avoid the term “war” because Trump promised not to start any more wars, and his supporters were balking at this one. So, a word change will suffice, he hopes, for them. And maybe it will, so ready are they to always believe their own Supreme Leader.
Having now started more wars in the first year of his second term than any modern president ever started in a full term, Trump is trying to whitewash his new reputation by branding this war today as “a little excursion.” This from the guy who so embraced the warrior strongman role that he put the loudest, least-trained, war-mongering, young, chest-thumping, Christian Nationalist in charge of the Pentagon and rebranded the “Department of Defense,” the “Department of WAR.”
Of course, calling it “a little excursion” now could also be just a way of mocking Iran by implying how much more we could do. It could be way of saying, “You think that was bad. Wait until you see what we can do if we make an extended effort.”
Trump is pushing back from his own use of the word “war” because he’s been strongly informed that congress must authorize a war and because Trump said he wouldn’t start wars. His own MAGA republicans have been pushing back; so, he is backpedaling now that he is getting flack from his own party over starting yet another war. He is trying to rebrand it as something else. So, like Putin’s war, this war with Iran can no longer be called a “war,” and you see the rest of the White House now sidestepping that word. Even Hegseth who wanted more than anyone to placard the word “war” all over his own department.
Well, it is one heck of an expensive “little excursion!” It is not just expensive in terms of the estimated $1-billion per day already being blown up (an extremely conservative estimate, I think) but it is expensive in terms of the enormous financial shutdown it has created that cannot—unlike Trump’s earlier Covid lockdowns—be turned back on just by throwing a circuit breaker, which Trump did back then by lifting his own mandate and declaring, “We can all go back to work now.” The damage to oil infrastructure in the most oil-important region of the world has been massive under Iran’s retaliation … and, over the weekend, under Israeli and US bombardment of Iranian oil fields.
Before going into Trump’s words that certainly sound awfully close to surrender today—to such extent they convinced millions of investors we’re about done now (less than ten days into a war he last said would last a few months)—let’s talk about what his claimed objectives have been so we can see if he has actually achieved any of them. Can he claim, as he did, that we are very nearly there because, by now, he is already drafting statements in his mind to rewrite history by claiming the objectives were always something other than what he has indicated. He’ll be coming up with new objectives, claiming he always said them. These will line up with wherever we are now or whenever this war actually ends. So, while we can still possibly all agree, let’s be clear on what he has already laid out as goal posts to see later how he moves them. Here are the objectives talked about, albeit in ever vacillating style from the snake charmer himself: (If you remember any others, please add them in the comments.)
GOAL ONE: Change the regime, or, at least, get rid of it: Any regime is not a single leader. It is the whole leadership group that is in charge—the ruling government or majority government, as the case may be. Trump got rid of the last supreme leader, but that only resulted in putting an even worse guy—the Supreme Son—in charge. You can read one of the articles below to learn all about how the new guy is even more of a hardliner than his father. Having had his wife killed and a child (I think) and his father by Trump’s Iranium War, and having been apparently wounded himself, he’s is madder than a hornet in a kicked nest. So, the Khamenie II, if left in place, will be far worse than anything we’ve seen to date. Trump has already stated this guy was not at all acceptable and that he, Trump, must be consulted with and agree to any leader put in place. Trump expressly told Time Magazine last week, “I’m not going through this to end up with another Khamenie.” OK, but that’s what he’s got as he says today that the war is as good as over, and the new Khamenie will certainly be harder on the Iraqi people than the scenario for them Trump claimed as objective number two:
GOAL TWO: Encourage the Iraqi people to overthrow and replace the existing regime: That is the second stage of “regime change.” It isn’t changed until something completely different is put in its place. Trump promised the people of Iraq (whom he called a “mean bunch” of people today) that the US military was coming in to do a job that would so thoroughly root out the existing regime that the people would be able to fill in with their own chosen government. (He probably called them “mean” today because they have not been so welcoming of his regime-change efforts now that they see their country blowing up all around them. Go figure! You would think they would grateful … at least after mopping up the blood of their brothers. So often these nations are so ungrateful toward our slaughter and economic devastation.)
GOAL THREE: Completely obliterate (like he claimed we already did) Iran’s nuclear war capabilities. Plus, now, terminate all of its missile capabilities: Over the weekend, Trump was considering going in and extracting all the enriched uranium Iran has, which is why he would not commit to not putting boots on the ground. Extraction certainly requires boots on the ground. Iran had supposedly begun work around the nuclear facilities we bombed last summer, and there has been no word about everything at those facilities being taken out in the latest war. It is not clear, at this point whether we even completely eliminated their ballistic missiles capable of delivering nukes or their production facilities, though I am certain Trump will, again, claim we have “obliterated” everything.
What was really achieved was utter economic devastation throughout the region. US military bases have also been wiped out by Iran. Iran has bombed some of the oil infrastructure in other Middle Easter nations around the Persian Gulf and has effectively laid siege to all oil commerce through the Strait of Hormuz, and the US and Israel have done the same to Iran:
The bombing of major Iranian oil depots and energy infrastructure around Tehran by a United States and Israeli military coalition has triggered massive fires across the Iranian capital, sent crude oil prices surging, and prompted warnings of a growing environmental and humanitarian crisis.
The strikes targeted multiple fuel storage facilities in Tehran and nearby provinces and were described by observers as a major escalation in the widening conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel. Videos circulating online showed enormous explosions and firestorms lighting up the night sky above the city while black smoke spread across large areas of the capital.
Reacting to footage of the attacks, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the Michigan Democrat running for the US Senate, wrote, “Your tax dollars being used to raise your gas prices.”
Images and videos posted across social media showed entire oil depots engulfed in flames while thick plumes of smoke rose above Tehran’s skyline. Assal Rad, a fellow at the Arab Center in Washington, DC, described the destruction captured in the footage.
“Scenes from Tehran look apocalyptic,” Rad said….
Iranian political commentator Kev Joon described the strikes as attacks on the basic infrastructure of the city.
“What is happening tonight is that US and Israel are targeting oil depots and desalination plants,” Joon said. “These aren’t military targets. They’re the infrastructure of everyday life. This isn’t a liberatory war. It’s an attempt to break the backs of Iranian people….”
Another widely circulated video showed oil flowing through streets and drainage channels after the destruction of a storage facility. Joon said the scenes unfolding in Tehran were unlike anything he had previously seen.
“I don’t know how many times I can say this but my god,” Joon wrote.
“I have never seen something like this,” he added. “These are gutters and streams that run the sides of streets on almost every street and alley in Tehran. They are destroying a city in ways we haven’t witnessed before.”
As for apocalypse …
By the following morning, the environmental consequences of the fires had spread across the Iranian capital. Tehran residents woke to thick gray clouds of smoke and rainfall contaminated with petroleum residue.
Iran’s Red Crescent Society warned that the black rain falling across the city could be dangerous for residents. The organization said the rainfall could be “highly dangerous and acidic” and issued guidance advising people to remain indoors.
Naturally, oil prices, hence fuel prices all over the world, shot through the roof as everyone knew they would in this kind of scorched-earth scenario. Then suddenly when prices went as ballistic as the missiles, Trump turned. Based on past patterns, it was almost likely he would chicken out when he saw his stock market being more than decimated and oil prices permanently ending hope for Republicans that keep trying to claim they are bring down inflation in time for the election late this year. Somehow the Donald seems not to have seen those results coming.
The white flag of surrender
Trump loves his stock market as a bragging point. Always has. After falling like TNT down an oil well this morning in the aftermath of all the weekend warfare on the oil fields and refineries, the S&P suddenly erased most of its losses from that horrible plunge like a missile launched out of a silo late in the trading day. Oil prices, went the other direction. Having soared all the way to $110 per barrel over the weekend, oil prices plunged deeply. All of this happened just because of Trump’s sudden 180 in speech. (The markets are stupid that way.)
Upon Trump jawboning (if that is all it is and not surrender under a Putin death grip on Trump’s badly bruised handshaking hand because, of course, we don’t really know what was said; we only know how quickly it made Trump turn), WTI is back down to $88 per barrel, and Brent is at $92. That is probably one of the biggest relief plunges in history. That is how much Trump’s sudden words this afternoon sounded like an imminent retreat from the battlefield.
I’m a little more suspicious that it is just more Trump blabbergassing, and he’ll be back to talking tough again in a few days (or less). Truth means nothing to this man. He says whatever is expedient at any moment and sells it hard. Nevertheless, his words certainly convinced the stock market and oil market of a major imminent reversal in the tides of war.
Putin may come out the biggest victor in this war. Oil prices surged, which was great for Putin who needs funding for his own imperial war, especially as the US and Europe backed off on some sanctions today to help reduce the absolute economic slaughter we could all see coming from Iran’s retaliation and from the US/Israel reprisals. Moreover, the US has expended so much weaponry that it has far less to give or sell to Ukraine. It must be nearly financially exhausted from all the wars Trump is running right now, but especially this one, after already depleting the USA’s lesser weapon stores so much in assistance to Ukraine. Now it has to spend hundreds of billions to build all of that back up in the next couple of year or be ill prepared for any truly necessary military defense, should one arrive. So, for Putin, this is a twin victory in aiding his efforts to create his own regime change in Ukraine and expand his own empire over Ukrainian territory and help his nation recover from the economic devastation under sanctions: It depletes US resources that could have gone to Ukraine, and it hugely charges up his oil sales for desperately needed revenue.
While Trump claimed Putin called him, Putin quickly set the record straight and said Trump called him, looking for a way to end the war. Putin now sits in the generous position, according to his version of the story, of trying to find a way to help Trump end the war; so, he said he will be getting back to the president with suggested solutions. You can be certain most of those will. first and foremost, be good for Russia as it gets reconstruction contracts in Iran and certainly inserts additional removal of oil sanctions so that Putin can “help the world” with the oil shortages that the rest of the world will be reeling under because Russian oil—once liberated from sanctions—can help resupply the world in order to avoid the economic catastrophe for everyone in both the West and the East that this war is certainly rapidly bringing on. Putin is going to be very helpful in cleaning up Trump’s mess. He has every reason to benefit.
Remember also, before we go to Trump’s words of peace not war, that both Donald Trump and Secretary of WAR, Pete Hegseth had said quite clearly this war would last weeks to months. We’re barely ten days in now, so it is not even weeks. Their time frame got longer as each day went by in order to convince Iran they were going to pound the regime into the dust of the desserts if the regime did not “unconditionally surrender.” Suddenly, it has shortened to almost nothing if Trump is telling the truth (always an unlikely bet).
Remember, Trump said “unconditional surrender” was the only possible outcome. (Read it again to etch it in, as I suspect that goal post for regime change will move.) Hegseth said last week this was “just the beginning” of the war. Now Trump says, “the war is very much complete.” Which is it? Did Hegseth fail to get the memo from the Commander in Chief when he spoke a couple of days ago? Was he spouting off the top of his head like we would hope the person running the entire Pentagon does?
Also remember that TheRump said, himself, several times, as did Hegseth, that “the worst is yet to come”—that what they had delivered to this point was just the light stuff, and then really bad stuff was coming if the leadership in Iran did not surrender unconditionally. (Maybe that is what the new destruction in the oilfields of Iran was the start of in the past twenty-four hours.)
While we still have the Dept. of War stating today, “We have only just begun to fight,” Trump’s words sound like he is looking for an exit ramp now that he saw, by the end of the weekend, economic damage to the US rising like the rockets’ red glare.
It could, of course, be the destruction of Iran is more close to complete than known. Trump also said,
“We’ve wiped every single force in Iran out, very completely,” the president said at his Trump National Doral club near Miami, where he touted the destruction of more than 50 Iranian naval ships, and decimation of its air force and anti-aircraft defenses.
“They have no leadership. It’s all been blown up.”
We know the last line isn’t true. They have all been replaced with more from the same regime. But, then, Trump says anything he wants all the time, and any parallels to actual truth, once we see the real results, are often not so much parallel as skewed or even opposite of the truth, as were the White House’s claims last week about the economy and inflation that I covered in my weekend Deeper Dive.
So, is this TACO taps out? Or is this just Donald Trump doing his usual snake-oil stuff and trying to jawbone drastically out-of-control markets back to better business with a little useful deception, while he fully intends to carry on with destroying oil fields? If it’s the latter, one has to wonder how many times the market can so severely have the football jerked away and then put back in its place before it stops doing backflips Lucy-and-Charlie-Brown-style and finally gets smart enough to stop believing a word he ever says. So far, it always believes whatever it wishes to be true, and Trump knows how to give it those rays of false hope it wishes for.
I write all this knowing full well that what sounded like a surrender may just be intense market manipulation because he chickened out over what was happening to the US economy from his war, so he thought he could fix it with a little snake charming. But he does also have quite the proven reputation for talking really big and then chickening out from what he promised was coming if and when he sees the damage in markets, so who knows?
The black rain
What an image, as described in the Iranian interview above, for this apocalypse that has begun to form in the Middle East. Let the rest of my editorial and headlines and videos below play that out for you.
