WAR AND PIECES: Trump's Attempt at a New Deal Sputters ahead in Fits and Stops, but it Does Move
Meanwhile, JD Vance exposes how Israel is vaporizing its friends and is down to just one ally left in the world and implies it could lose that ally, too, if Netanyahu's government doesn't shut up.
Today got off to a bumpy start in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran walked away from the first day of talks in Switzerland because Israel did a little more bombing in Lebanon, and they announced Trump’s deal was on pause until Israel proved it was done fighting. Iran started the day by opening the strait, but then the Iranian IRGC announced the strait was closed and threatened to blow up any ships attempting passage, perhaps because Iran had suddenly announced the deal was on pause, so they felt they were carrying out orders from on high; but then the Iranian foreign minister announced the strait is still open, and some ship traffic did start to move through.
Israel and Hezbollah announced a ceasefire, which may be why Iran appeared to reverse itself, but Netanyahu made clear there is no way Israel is pulling out of occupying Lebanon even though Iran had already said it understands the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) as requiring Israel to exit completely to prove it is done fighting because there is nothing about this deal being a ceasefire with Lebanon. It is a promised end of the war; clause one guarantees total peace and security in Lebanon with neither side ever starting a skirmish again. Needless to say that is a major reason Israel will not sign on and why so many in Israel abhor this deal.
It is hard to imagine the ceasefire holding with Israel sitting right there inside of Lebanon. It’s equally hard to imagine Israel allowing people who lob rockets into Northern Israel freedom to restock and regroup, which is the situation they would have if Israel weren’t right there on the ground keeping close watch and challenging any attempt to do such things. So, it’s a very fragile ceasefire.
Of particular interest today, in light of what I wrote yesterday, is the vice president of the United States sharply, with notably angry words, rebuking the Israeli government. While he kept Netanyahu out of his direct line of fire, he stated in no uncertain terms, using the same words I did yesterday and the day before, that Israel does not have a single national ally left in the world that is sympathetic to Israel other than the United States and indicated Israel is even at risk of ending its last remaining alliance if members of Netanyahu’s government do not shut up about Donald Trump and his ceasefire deal.
Vance starts by stating upfront that he is upset with what he is hearing and goes on to say that Israel’s situation is rapidly deteriorating in world opinion and US opinion because of how it storms ahead in this war. He describes Israel’s situation as precarious, if not dire, and indicates the possibility that it could find itself charging forward without a single ally in the near future if the government’s words against President Trump don’t stop. He spelled out how much of Israel’s military is built on US dollars, and made it clear that relationship is at risk. (You’ll find the video in the first story highlighted under today’s War section if you’re a paying subscriber. Very sharp words from the lead negotiator of the MoU.)
Meanwhile Israel’s most widely distributed newspaper, owned by Trump’s major donor Miriam Adelson, ran a scathing open letter to President Trump, criticizing his failure in this war and claiming Trump “betrayed” Israel. It started with the headline, “You could have been the greatest president of all, but you failed.”
I say to you: You made a colossal mistake. You failed by signing a surrender agreement with a murderous and cruel terror regime. You severely harmed American interests and the democratic and human values of the enlightened world, and you turned over the hourglass toward the next war, which your successors will have to deal with in the years to come….
And I am trying, and failing, to understand what caused this absurd change of direction, so contrary to everything you have said and done until now. The midterm elections are a flimsy excuse. You are in your second term, and the surrender memorandum of understanding will hurt the Republicans more than it will help them.
Probably not words that are going to kindle the friendship between the president and Israel as JD Vance said Israel had better be careful to do, though they were not words from the government like those he mentioned. The open letter concluded with “one last word” of warning to the president of the United States:
We feel betrayed, nothing less, because your heart was, it seemed, in the right place, with all your flaws. You acted against it. You lost your patience and your moral and leadership compass. Only if you walk this back and avoid reaching a final agreement with Iran might there be a correction.
As I said, the numbers of people who loathe this deal as a failure among Israelis and their government, among US Democrats and Republicans alike, and even among social influencers who are MAGA diehards constitute an extraordinarily large cross-section of the world. I did find one article today by a MAGA supporter who supported the deal as a great win for Trump.
I found it to be pathetically weak, making claims like the deal is a win because it reopens strait—something I’ve pointed out many times is no win from the war whatsoever because the strait was 100% open and free of all peril before the war, which cannot be said now, especially seeing today’s dangerous confusion, and it is far from clear that the control over the strait that this agreement promises to Iran if the deal is finalized, will not result in tolls again down the road.
Another win he pointed to was a better uranium deal. Uh, where? That’s a fantasy. Yes, it could happen and that would be win, but you cannot use it as your argument for saying Trump clearly won the war and those who don’t think so are crazy because the crazy person is the one who believes something happened that never happened. We have no idea how the uranium equation will turn out. We do know Trump said he would release $30-billion of Iranian funds, held by America, to Iran as soon as they re-opened the strait, and that is with no deal on uranium. We know Obama released only a small fraction of that amount, and Trump demolished that release of money as being beyond horrible. We know that Trump is already equivocating by saying we don’t really need to secure the uranium by taking it out of the country because it is already buried under dust.
So, I’ve posted a great satirical rebuttal by a longtime Trump supporter in the humor section below toward any claim that this deal is a win. It’s quite funny and comes from someone who has spent the last seven years supporting Trump and ripping Biden to shreds, so hardly someone naturally inclined to discredit anything Trump does. He spends most of his work tearing up liberals. Thus, even megaMAGA influencers have a hard time seeing this war as anything remotely resembling a win for Trump.
(Today I wrote a regular editorial and aggregated headlines because I wrote and published my weekend Deeper Dive early. Usually, there would be no editorial or headlines on Friday while I start composing it. This is to make up for that.)