Thank you for the update. I've been wading through the opposing opinions, trying to understand why they don't see the problems with both labor and inflation numbers. Such a breath of fresh air to read someone who gets it.
Thank you, and that's the way it was for me, too, when I read David Rosenberg. I've been saying this stuff for a long time but not seeing ANY major economist seeing a shred of it. (Stockman has seen some of it.) So, it was a breath of fresh air to see a highly respected economist, who has accurately predicted major recessions in the past, come out and nail some of the main points I've been harping on -- the labor inaccuracies due to the Covid lockdown damage, the more forward-looking GDI v GDP, the significance of the tiny upturn in unemployment, and the likelihood that the recession has already begun based on where those things now stand in aggregate. That is why I quoted so much of what he said. He nailed many of the points that I've been saying are critical in understanding what is happening. So, it is, as you say, refreshing to finally see some confirmation of that. Of course, eventually reality is going to confirm it all; but, at least, one voice in the mainstream is saying it, in spite of the ridicule he'll likely get from his colleagues ... as he said he's gotten in the past when he's made recession predictions prior to them proving themselves accurate.
Thank you for the update. I've been wading through the opposing opinions, trying to understand why they don't see the problems with both labor and inflation numbers. Such a breath of fresh air to read someone who gets it.
Thank you, and that's the way it was for me, too, when I read David Rosenberg. I've been saying this stuff for a long time but not seeing ANY major economist seeing a shred of it. (Stockman has seen some of it.) So, it was a breath of fresh air to see a highly respected economist, who has accurately predicted major recessions in the past, come out and nail some of the main points I've been harping on -- the labor inaccuracies due to the Covid lockdown damage, the more forward-looking GDI v GDP, the significance of the tiny upturn in unemployment, and the likelihood that the recession has already begun based on where those things now stand in aggregate. That is why I quoted so much of what he said. He nailed many of the points that I've been saying are critical in understanding what is happening. So, it is, as you say, refreshing to finally see some confirmation of that. Of course, eventually reality is going to confirm it all; but, at least, one voice in the mainstream is saying it, in spite of the ridicule he'll likely get from his colleagues ... as he said he's gotten in the past when he's made recession predictions prior to them proving themselves accurate.