There are three parts to this important story.
The first is that I wrote in great depth in my Deeper Dive about how close Trump was to actually taking us into World War III this weekend. I’ve never claimed we were on the brink of WWIII before, though I’ve sometimes noted things could slip that way, especially with Trump; but this time I said we actually appeared to be moving quickly in that direction. So, I went into great detail for my paying subscribers to spell out that case because I don’t take it casually.
The second part is that, naturally, Trump wanted to prove me an idiot by doing the opposite, which is NOT something I said was out of the question. In fact, I pointed out throughout my Deeper Dive that he always has chickened out in the past, so it’s never unlikely. That’s how he got the moniker TACO Trump (Trump Always Chickens Out … in case there are any novitiates); so, even after going back to the biggest threats he’s ever made and ranting and cussing about how horrible Iran is for not making a deal, he might very well do the biggest chickening out he ever did.
He did. That’s part two. And it’s so big that the memes have gone insane today. I’ll share some in the humor section for fun. In fact, to try to rub salt in my wounds, he called it all off within minutes of when I hit the “publish” button. (Or, at least, that is when I saw the news pop up.) He also did this, as is now completely predictable: He billed his actual chickening out as a hyuge victory! He said a deal had finally been agreed to via his Middle Eastern negotiators.
That was the part that left me a little worried, having just hit publish and being too tired to check it out. I left the story there for the night, having read it only quickly, after posting my huge article, thinking, Really? Am I finally going to find out I was dead wrong about Trump just as I claimed it looks like WWIII could be just about here and said again that Trump will never pressure Iran into a deal? Will I wake up and find that he actually did manage to cajole Iran into making a deal with his endless bluffing?
Here’s what I read right before bed:
In Trump’s Truth Social post on Saturday night, he threatened to unleash ‘power not seen since World War II’, but said he agreed to tentatively pause the attack.
‘We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to,’ Trump wrote.
[“Perimeters or parameters?” Maybe its a peripheral deal that skates around all the most important details as usual, but let’s get back to what I read Saturday night:]
‘This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.
‘Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL. The Country of Israel joins me in this commitment.’
Trump claimed the US was “locked and loaded” if the rapid deal didn’t happen, ready to “unleash power not seen since World War II” similar to what he said with every other deal that did not happen—after which he never went to any higher level of attack even whenever it became totally clear the deal did not come close to happening. He just moves on to pretending he never said that he would resume his attack plan if the deal did not happen.
So, I kind of didn’t think Trump really had a deal (nor did I read it all that carefully with my bleary eyes), but I also didn’t want to waste my time trying to figure out whether Iran had made any kind of agreement. I was exhausted from that long day of writing a full case for the possibility of WWIII. I figured, If he’s lying as usual, why should I waste sleep over it? I’ll wake up tomorrow, and Iran will have already done all the heavy lifting for me and will just clarify, “No, we didn’t make a deal!”
I do note now the operative words at the end of his statement of retreat, which I didn’t notice in my tiredness and frustration last night: “subject to being able to rapidly make a deal.” I think my eyes skipped that whole sentence. That, of course, is where all of Trump’s other 40+ schmeasefire deals ended up submerged in Trump’s swamp of lies.
Losing faith as he’s losing face
Trump said earlier that he was losing faith as Iran’s talks drag on. I think nearly everyone is losing faith in Trump, if they ever had any. That was a whole section of my Deeper Dive—pointing out how many former allies think America has no respectability or trustworthiness anymore and how none of our enemies, especially Iran, believe Trump’s threats. But had they finally worked?
Well, I thought, If I wake up, and the deal is real, I will eat all the crow I have to because my writing has to remain about the truth, not about saving face. If Trumps with all of his boisterous threats actually pulled this off and got Iran to make a deal, which Iran said would never happen under threats, I’ll have to give him all the credit he deserves. I tried to brace myself for a big meal of crow pie for breakfast, should Iran confirm it did agree to the parameters of new deal as Trump claimed.
That brings us to part three: Iran did just say this morning. “No, we didn’t make a deal! Trump is a liar as always!” Well, I shouldn’t convey something that important just by paraphrasing it, so let me quote what Iran did officially say.
What relief the morning brought to my humiliated and aging mind. I had been reminding myself as I went to bed that not having war would certainly be better than not proving to be stupid in what I had written about the precipice we were standing on for WWIII if Trump did as he announced just a little earlier was going to happen—just a few hours before he retracted it. But eating crow pie for breakfast still isn’t fun.
The headline that greeted me was this:
US shifts course again as Israel stays silent and Iran mocks Trump’s retreat
There it was, right in the headline staring me in the face on Sunday morning.
For nearly four months, Trump has swung between threats of major strikes and calls for restraint; Israel has yet to respond to his claim that it joined the commitment to hold fire, while renewed uncertainty threatens flights and summer travel. [Yeah, why not muck around in the world with your threats, Trump, and threaten everything fun or useful this summer?]
U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that he had canceled another large-scale strike on Iran after the outlines of a possible agreement were reached caught Israelis at the height of the summer travel season, when airports, vacations and overseas flights are at their busiest….
“The country of Israel joins me in this commitment,” Trump wrote on Truth Social after announcing that he had agreed to cancel the planned attack, provided that a deal could be reached quickly. [He always says anything he wants to spew out of his mouth and pretends he can magically create reality with his words.]
There was no immediate public confirmation from Jerusalem.
Trump’s decision marked the latest sharp shift in a policy that has veered for nearly four months between threats of overwhelming military force and efforts to cool the confrontation.
Iranian officials were quick to mock the reversal.
“Trump retreated again,” Mohammad Marandi, a senior Iranian figure associated with the regime’s negotiating delegation, wrote on X shortly after the announcement.
Iran continues to oppose unrestricted passage through the strategic waterway without its approval, and no clear solution appears imminent.
Yup, that’s all it was—another feint, another retreat. More blabbering baloney straight from TheRump, who plays with war like it is the emperor’s new toy. However, the fakery comes with its own prolonged, droning cost to all of us:
Weeks of U.S. strikes against Iranian military targets have failed to restore secure maritime traffic. The campaign against Iran has now entered its sixth month, leaving Israel and the wider region in prolonged uncertainty.
How about the entire world in prolonged uncertainty?
Only days earlier, Trump had said from Camp David that the United States was still considering further military action and warned that Washington could “hit them very hard.”
It remained unclear what would ultimately determine whether he ordered another attack.
Well, what did become clear is that he didn’t order another attack. He ordered another retreat. Oh for a president who speaks softly but carries a big stick, rather than one who sticks his mouth in everything, then cowers, though cowering is better than starting WWIII, but I’m sick of the endless chaos to no good purpose, other than bashing the global economy all over the place.
The heightened tension prompted the U.S. State Department to issue security warnings Saturday. American embassies in 11 countries across the region, including Israel, urged U.S. citizens to consider leaving or prepare for a rapid departure in the event of escalation.
Those are typical warning lights for real war activity, which I pointed out for my Deeper Dive readers as a red alert for a much worse war.
Now, with the no-deal/new deal, Trump told everyone to “Get to work, everybody, and get it done.”
What a moron! Iran is not even at the table, according to its lead negotiator; so, how are they going to get anything done? The president lives in Pretend World.
So what put Trump in a choke hold this time?
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly played a central role behind the scenes in trying to prevent the attack.
According to reports, he warned Trump that U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure could trigger retaliation against oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
Was Trump too stupid to figure all of that out for himself before the White House announced, as I reported to my Deeper Dive readers that the decision had been made to go into more intensified war? That was the almost-clincher for me: The White House, after teasing the option of highly intensified conflict, finally actually announced as I was deep into writing my article, that the decision had been made to go to much more intensified war. Does the president not bother to talk to people like the Saudi crown prince, who is forced to sit right in the middle of it all, before he has the White House issue proclamations of renewed war?
That seems like a haphazard way to work with the main people caught up in the conflict, albeit not as haphazard as scaring them all with a notice that you are now going back to intensified war and then not doing it.
But the Saudis, according to Sunday reports, pressed harder with their concerns, describing a war scenario that sounded more like the WWIII scenario I warned Saturday evening would be coming right away if Trump took this next move:
But the Saudi leader went further:… He directly demanded clarification on Washington and Tel Aviv’s plan of action, arguing that missteps at this juncture would destabilize the global energy market for extended periods. In doing so, he implicitly conveyed two things:
The first is that, if destroyed, the GCC economies would be unable to honor the signed agreements, Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs), and long-term structural partnerships celebrated during Trump’s administration, values that range between $2 trillion and $3 trillion. This is not to mention the billions injected directly into the businesses of Donald Trump himself and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
Now THAT’s knowing how to hit home with Trump!
The second is that, if Trump refused the request of the Saudis, acting as spokespersons for the Gulf and pressed ahead, he would be solely responsible for the destruction of local economies and a global economic crisis. Faced with structural disaster in their own territories, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries would close their airspace to American fighter jets and revoke permissions for the use of logistical bases in the region.
It was these two implicit messages that deterred Trump. Everything else he had already evaluated and, nonetheless, decided to proceed with the attack.
Fools forever
Still, there are fools who, even after waking up Sunday morning, believed there might be truth to all of this:
No additional details have been released on the terms under discussion, the timetable for negotiations or the concessions expected from either Washington or Tehran.
Of course not … because there are no agreed “perimeters!” According to Iran, that is total fake news. They have said they won’t even talk to Trump, and it looks like they are not even talking to Trump! At the time that article was published, I believe that was already known, though it is possible the writer(s) hadn’t gotten the news from the Iranian side yet.
The latest uncertainty has immediate consequences for ordinary Israelis.
Families waiting in lines at Ben Gurion Airport, planning summer vacations or simply trying to get through the school break now face the constant possibility that flights could be canceled, Israeli airspace could close or a broader war could erupt.
It has immediate consequences for everyone. One thing it certainly proves is my thesis that Trump would prove to be the King of Chaos. He thrives on creating chaos so he can remain always the center of attention. He thrives on negative energy. That’s why he loved creating The Apprentice.
The repeated policy reversals in Washington have turned that uncertainty into a logistical nightmare.
Chaos comes with its own cost, and we will all be paying it for a long time to come.
For now, Israelis are again left learning about the “outlines of a deal” from the U.S. president while wondering how stable those understandings are, whether Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and what Trump’s latest reversal will ultimately mean for Israel’s security.
There were NO understandings at all. Iran just told you that. Their lead negotiator is scoffing at the president for his constant blustering head fakes and retreats.
In what has become a familiar pattern in the Iran war, President Donald Trump again threatened a massive attack then pulled back from the brink.
But while he attributed his latest reversal to U.S. allies pleading with him to give diplomacy another chance, experts also see signs Iran is gaining the upper hand.
“Iran and its clients see blood in the water and see a benefit for all of them in escalating and entering the fray,” Afshon Ostovar, an Iran expert at the Naval Postgraduate School, told the Financial Times.
He added that their goal is to prolong the conflict instead of inflicting more severe damage as Iran looks to exploit less political endurance on the other side.
“So the longer it continues, the weaker the resolve of their enemies will be,” Ostovar explained. “That is how they see it.”
I’ve said all along this will play out as a war of attrition, except that I’d say it has to do with more than political endurance. It has a great deal to do with economic endurance, which will even hit Trump businesses and investments eventually. That, of course, will lead to political pressure to end the war, but Trump, himself, will not like seeing “his” economy turning into rubble.
That said, on the political side of that problem …
Indeed, Trump’s approval ratings on his handling of the economy have slumped alongside his numbers on the Iran war, with support slipping even among Republicans.
And now that midterm elections are just a few months away and gas prices are back up again, Tehran sees leverage in the U.S. political calendar….
An Iranian diplomat told the Wall Street Journal that the regime is prepared to take advantage of Trump political vulnerability and would consider preemptive strikes if talks fail.
WSJ, there are NO TALKS. It was just another Trump ruse, and now Iran has clarified that.
That aggressive stance was on display last week, when Iran launched unprovoked attacks on U.S. bases in what Central Command called an “attempted surprise attack.”
By contrast, Trump’s continued restraint comes despite Iran crossing his red line for resuming all-out war after it killed U.S. troops in Jordan last month.
As I highlighted from a number of sources for my Deeper Dive readers, we now see again in Sunday’s news:
But the U.S. and its allies have also severely depleted stockpiles of interceptors needed to repel Iranian attacks, making critical pieces of their energy infrastructure more at risk.
Global energy markets have also sharply drawn down inventories of crude oil and refined products, with analysts warning that “tank bottoms” will be just around the corner unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.
The combined effect is that the overall playing field has tilted in favor of the Islamic Republic.
So, no Iran did not call Trump begging for a deal. Just lies and more lies. All the time, lies!
One would think the game would be completely expired with everyone by now, though in my sleepiest state I worried a little about it, then just said, “Go to sleep. Iran will straighten it all out in the morning”:
Traders realised weeks ago that the President’s declarations are not worth the space on Truth Social that they are afforded.
They should have … and probably would have if they weren’t AI controlled and manipulated algorithms; but I’m not so sure they DID.
His Saturday night post was a classic of the genre.
THAT it was!
Back to what pressed Trump to retreat
In fact, there is no indication that any breakthrough is at hand, or that a deal could emerge “rapidly”, as the President suggested. Instead, in a statement issued in Riyadh, the government of Saudi Arabia revealed that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had strong-armed the President earlier on Saturday….
“Saudi Arabia’s message to Washington is becoming increasingly clear,” said analyst Danny Citrinowicz, a Non-Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council, “if the United States launches major strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states will likely bear the immediate consequences.”
You would think by now the president would know what the sensitivities and concerns are of the nations it is working with in the Middle East by now without needing a reminder call.
MBS – the leader accused by US intelligence of orchestrating the murder and dismemberment of US-based Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 – now finds himself in the extraordinary position of being the voice of reason. On Saturday, he was the one to tell Trump that the White House no longer holds the cards to win the Iran conflict.
As laid out carefully in my Deeper Dive,
Last week also saw Trump belatedly concede that the US weapons stockpile is running low after five months of fruitless conflict and growing anxiety that hostilities could spiral beyond the Gulf.
And this:
Last weekend, Ukraine targeted an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea that Kyiv claimed was carrying military equipment to Russia. In Riyadh and other Gulf capitals, minds are being concentrated by the possibility of an even wider conflict….
It has been 17 months since Trump berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, accusing him of lacking the ability to win his country’s war with Russia.
This weekend, Saudi Arabia’s leader delivered exactly the same message to Trump about Iran, with the added potency of it being true.
To try to put a stroke of finality on its statement that it is not dealing with Donald Trump because there is no one there to deal with, Iran attacked another ship early Sunday morning. Two actually, but one got away:
Overnight, around 2:00 AM eastern U.S. Time, Iran **REJECTED** the latest U.S. Offer.
Iran also (overnight) attacked two additional Merchant Tanker Vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz.
An oil tanker was struck by unidentified projectiles about 11 nautical miles northeast of Lima, Oman, causing damage to its engine room.
In a separate incident, the master of another tanker reported seeing a large splash and an explosion in close proximity to the vessel 21 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman.
Let them be clear, since Trump does not seem to hear well:
The post, cut off in that last line, continues …
Whether he continues his aggression or retreats from it, our forces are at the highest level of readiness and are prepared for any eventuality. If confrontation becomes inevitable, the battlefield will be the decider, and at that time, everyone will understand who holds the power and who will speak the final word.”
It seems to me personally that the only people who believe what President Trump said are either idiots, gullible fools, or Propagandists.
Or Trump, himself:
![It's Sunday Night . . . and Ten Minutes BEFORE "Futures" Markets Opened . . .](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t1y7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0bb6a44-4f8e-464e-af7d-0941b4f58c4e_1140x760.jpeg "It's Sunday Night . . . and Ten Minutes BEFORE "Futures" Markets Opened . . .")
At least, I decided to sleep on it (and I slept well) and let Iran sort it out for me. I won’t say I believed what he said, but I did wonder as I got ready for bed, Am I going to wake up to find out I was finally wrong about all his lies and head fakes and TACO trades to where he finally did succeed in using them to strong-arm them into an agreement? I now chalk up my late-night concern on Saturday to writing fatigue. I’m sure my readers have reading fatigue on that Deeper Dive, but I don’t make cases for WWIII lightly as some do. What I shared here is a mere glance at what I presented to paying subscribers. It seems to me a point worth making carefully as to how close were are to a world war.
Unless my memory is failing, I seem to recall week after week after week wherein Friday night, kinetic military action took place which lasted into Sunday and then, amazingly, Sunday afternoon or evening, “good news” came out saying “a deal is close” or “negotiations are promising” or some other line of complete bullshit, to make people think the Strait of Hormuz will be re-opening and the flow of oil will resume.
The people who trade oil futures contracts, made clear they’re mostly utter morons, by continuing to believe these soothing words from the White House and/or the President, when almost none of it was ever true.
From my perspective either the Futures Traders are utter morons, gullible idiots, or just flat-out FRAUDS who KNOW they’re rigging the markets and are doing so anyway.
Or AI that doesn’t even care but just knows how the other AIs and algos will trade any word the president spouts without assessing it for truth value because what does a computer care about truth?
And then Hal makes my point:
The trouble with what the Futures Traders are doing is that they cannot create - or escape - reality.
Exactly as I said. The high prices and shortages are coming, regardless of all the jockeying of markets by jawboning.
Sooner or later, the reality of not enough oil, will be unavoidable. Prices will be FORCED to skyrocket, slamming what’s left of the U.S. economy, and sending the country into what I perceive will be flash-recession then quickly-arriving-Depression.
Sounds far more reasonable than anything I’ve heard out of Trump’s mouth all throughout his second term.
Has Trump really lost face worse than ever this time?
A number of stories say Trump has lost all credibility all over the world to such degree they are saying Iran has effectively won the war, and this last on-again/off-again round of useless threats proves it. For Trump, his self-destruction of his credibility means something worse than loss of credibility. While a huge number of people—even many former influencers who were his supporters—are fed up with the endless lying, the worst part for Trump is that he’s lost power because of his own big mouth, and he’s empowered his enemy in the eyes of the world, worse still, in the eyes of his enemy:
When President Trump appeared to back down once again from a threatened military escalation against Tehran, he offered fresh fodder to the narrative Iranian officials are eager to promote: They are not the ones who fear war — Mr. Trump is.
Iran’s leadership believes it has found the world’s Achilles’ heel. With the help of regional militia allies, Tehran spent the past week underscoring its ability to threaten several of the world’s most critical energy facilities and waterways.
It has continued to up the ante in its face-off with Washington over when and how to stop their renewed hostilities….
When Mr. Trump signaled in recent days that a major escalation was imminent if no concessions were made, two former Iranian officials said Tehran’s leadership told him to go right ahead….
“‘We have no problem with war at all, and we are ready for the big confrontation,’” Mr. al-Mousawi said the Iranians told the Americans. “Trump told the Iranians: ‘I will hit the power in Iran.’ So, the Iranians said: ‘If you strike, we strike….’”
On Sunday, Mr. Trump said he had relented from his planned escalation after Iran and other Middle Eastern countries requested a delay because the “perimeters of a deal” had been agreed to.
Yet, there are no outward signs of any return to U.S.-Iranian negotiations.
The core of that struggle is the issue of who controls the Strait of Hormuz, he said. “The Iranians are very, very serious about not giving up control, and they’re willing to bomb things to make sure that’s the case.”
Beyond that dynamic, there was also the startling July 17 attack on U.S. military sites in Jordan that killed three American soldiers….
The core of that struggle is the issue of who controls the Strait of Hormuz, he said. “The Iranians are very, very serious about not giving up control, and they’re willing to bomb things to make sure that’s the case.”
Beyond that dynamic, there was also the startling July 17 attack on U.S. military sites in Jordan that killed three American soldiers….
Emboldened, some well-known Iranian hard-liners mocked the dilemma the Trump administration seems to find itself in….
When Mr. Trump said he was postponing an escalation, a prominent hard-line commentator, Seyed Mohammad Marandi, posted a picture of chicken tacos on his X account….
“Iran has not budged,” he wrote above it.
Far from being closer to talks, some regional experts feel the two sides are further away than ever.
Trump has lost. He just doesn’t know it yet. And if he pushes the war harder because he cannot accept the loss or (more likely) find a way to spin it, it’s World War III. Iran is not backing down. Trump is. All the time. And now he’s backed himself into a corner he can’t seem to extract himself from.
(Note: Having read another writer on Substack lay out how much his paid subscriptions have fallen for a year, which he says is true for many writers on Substack, even as his free subscribers and free followers have grown, I want to thank those of you who have turned that path around here. It’s not a big swing; but, at least, things are moving back in the right direction towards becoming a possible supplemental retirement income over time, as needs to happen within a year for me to stay with it now that my wife and I have both retired and have less income. We’ve banked away enough extra cash to make it that long on retirement income along with the income from this site before I’m forced back out of retirement if this doesn’t work. So, thank you!)
Money Matters (monetary policy, metals, cryptos, currency wars & going cashless)
The City Of London Is Preparing for a Full Bloodbath.
Bessent ‘to-do’ list shows proposal for US to buy $5bn-$10bn of Japanese yen (“We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention,” he said, citing economic security and the US-Japan alliance as part of reasons behind it.)
Another bailout: Trump says US support for Japanese yen a ‘signal of friendship’
Inflation Factors (too much money chasing too few goods due to weather, sanctions, tariffs, quarantines, etc.)
As I reported early last week, here it is from another source:
Wars & Rumors of War (including cyberwar, civil unrest and revolts)
US shifts course again as Israel stays silent and Iran mocks Trump’s retreat
Iran *****REJECTS***** Latest U.S. Peace Offer
Phone Call: Saudis Issue Ultimatum to Trump on Behalf of GCC
For Iran, Trump’s Reversal on Escalation Shows Who Has the Upper Hand
Trump’s on-again-off-again war against Iran: in his own words
Here’s how Trump has zig zagged with on-again, off-again strikes throughout the Iran war
Trump Claims Iran Talks Will Start Monday
Iran says no talks are underway with United States after Trump calls off attacks
Iran denies Trump’s claim that U.S.-Iran negotiations to begin today after U.S. strikes called off (And guess who is going to prove right?)
Iran denies negotiating with US after Trump announces talks
Iran Déjà Vu: Trump Once Again Threatens Massive Escalation Against Tehran Only to Walk Back
USA Appears Headed for Strategic Defeat, Allies Fear
Iran’s leaders show united front over war but are divided over how to proceed
Lowering the bar for victory in the Iran war (and endlessly moving the goal posts)
—
Settlers torch two mosques, scrawl ‘revenge’ graffiti in overnight West Bank rampages
2 mosques in the West Bank are set on fire during a deadly surge in settler violence
Digital Dominance (AI threats, transhumanism, hacks & cyberattacks, etc.)
Political Pandemonium & Social Senescence (socio-political issues & events)
Conservative Pundit Tells Sean Hannity That Trump ‘May Only Have 3 Months Left’
Calamity, Catastrophe & Climate Craziness
Huge state-wide fire update:
New geological discovery about how Yellowstone works, but it doesn’t mean eruption is imminent:
Off-the-Beat News & Just Plain Offbeat News
A Ton of Space Junk Tumbles Unpredictably to Earth Every Week
Doomer Humor
Dave
We have record breaking stocks today!! Things must be great again?? Oil down stocks up! Trumps says to the moon Alice.
"Orators are most vehement when they have the weakest cause, as men get on horseback when they cannot walk." (Cicero)